Poll: No Clear GOP Front Runner in Key Swing States

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
Washington, DC

According to a new Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll, there is no clear GOP front-runner in many swing states.

“With so many Republican candidates, there is no clear leader in these key swing states in the race for the 2016 presidential nomination,” says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

The poll focused on three states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – because “since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.”

“Two favorite sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, are ahead in Florida and have some legs in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Gov. John Kasich is Ohio’s hometown favorite, but he’s invisible in the other two states,” said Brown. “Five candidates share the lead in Pennsylvania with none getting more than 12 percent of the vote. The GOP presidential race is clear as mud.”

In Florida, the poll shows that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is in the lead with 20 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is closely behind with 18 percent. Third place in the Sunshine State goes to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) who has 9 percent.

In Ohio, the hometown favorite is in the lead. Ohio’s own Gov. Scott Kasich (R-OH) holds the lead with 19 percent – a ten point lead over second place, belonging to Bush. Walker is in third place in Ohio.

And in Pennsylvania, Rubio holds first place with 12 percent, but the race is tight. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is in second with 11 percent and Bush and Dr. Ben Carson are tied at 10 percent for third place.

“The race for the Democratic nomination could not be more different,” the poll results state. “Secretary Clinton is far, far ahead and the criticisms of her and questions about her email and family foundation seem to be having no impact at all on her Democratic supporters.”

Clinton holds a large lead over any other Democratic candidate – or potential candidate – in the three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The poll was conducted from June 4th to June 15th. In Florida, 1,147 voters were surveyed with a plus or minus 2.9 percent margin of error. More voters – 1,191 – were polled in Ohio and the margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percent. Only 970 voters were polled in Pennsylvania and the margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percent.