NH Poll: Trump Slipping, Rubio Rising

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. at a town hall meeting in Laconia, N.H., Wednesday Feb. 3, 2016.
AP/Jacquelyn Martin

The latest tracking poll of New Hampshire finds Donald Trump dropping slightly, losing 2 points through Wednesday. Marco Rubio has moved into second place, gaining three points as Trump and Cruz extend their battle from Iowa.

The poll, from University of Massachusetts Lowell, finds the race still very fluid in New Hampshire, with 41 percent of voters saying they could still change their mind. New Hampshire votes in just 5 days, on Tuesday.

The race seems to be consolidating into a three-person race between Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich are each polling in the high-single digits, but have each lost a point or two in the last several days.

Since Monday, Trump has lost 2 points, Cruz has gained 2 and Rubio has jumped 7 points.

A particular profile of Donald Trump’s supporters is emerging in the tracking poll. He dominates among men, those earning less than $50k a year and those with a high-school education or less. Among voters who graduated college, Trump, Cruz and Rubio are essentially tied.

Trump also dominates among voters who consider themselves “moderates” politically.

Marco Rubio does best with voters over 65. Rubio does worst with voters under 30. Rubio, in fact runs fifth among young voters. Rubio has positioned himself as a “next generation” Republican. It is interesting, then, that young voters rate him lowest among all the major candidates.

On the Democrat side, that party’s frontrunner, Bernie, Sanders has also shed a few points. He currently has 58 percent support in the primary, down slightly from 61. Hillary Clinton has gained a couple points, rising from 34 to 36 percent.

As the election nears, both Sanders and Trump will likely give up a bit more support. Races invariably tighten as voting nears. With only 5 days until voting, though, both continue to hold substantial leads in their respective races.