Poll: National GOP Race a 3-Way Tie, Donald Trump Drops

Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

A new national survey from Public Policy Polling finds GOP frontrunner Donald Trump shedding 9-points since early January. The race for the Republican nomination is now essentially a 3-way tie between Trump and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

Trump currently leads the race with 25 percent support. The last national survey from PPP taken at the end of December had Trump with 34 percent. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are currently tied for second with 21 percent each.

Ben Carson is in fourth, with 11 percent support. Jeb Bush and John Kasich are tied with 5 percent each, followed by Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie with 3 percent each.

“Donald Trump’s really seen some cratering in his support this week,” Dean Debnam, President of PPP, said in a release. “A key part of his message has always been that he’s a winner and now that he’s lost something Republicans- and especially conservatives- aren’t finding him as compelling as they did a few weeks ago.”

Trump’s drop in polling is tied to a general drop in his favorable ratings. He has dropped a net 17 points in favorablity, the difference between favorable and unfavorable opinions. Currenty, just 48 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of him, while 41 percent have an unfavorable view. In the last PPP survey, these numbers stood at 58-34 for Trump.

Trump’s standing is also suffering as the field narrows into a three person race. He now loses head-to-head match-ups between both Rubio and Cruz. He is also now the third choice for the most conservative voters.

Rubio’s favorable ratings are the highest of the three. Cruz dominates among “very conservative” voters, while Trump dominates among “moderates.” Cruz is also top of the field when voters’ first and second choices are combined.

Since the last PPP survey, Rubio has seen the most growth. He has jumped 8 points since early January. Cruz has moved up 3 points. With a margin error of 4.3 percent, the poll is showing a three-person race for the nomination.

Both Cruz and Rubio still have room to grow their vote, according to the poll. Trump’s path to the nomination would seem to be getting much more narrow.