A new poll from Reuters shows Hillary Clinton regaining a solid lead over Republican Donald Trump. Clinton is backed by 46 percent of likely voters, while 35 percent back Trump. Clinton’s 11-point lead is a sharp reversal from last month, when Clinton and Trump were tied.
That Reuters survey from mid-May showed a sizable bump for the Republican, as Trump clinched his nomination fight. Hillary Clinton was still experiencing a string of primary losses against Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders. While that contest continues through Tuesday, a break in primary contests has spared Clinton another round of negative headlines.
After peaking at just over 40 percent of the vote on May 12th, Trump has shed support over the past two weeks, according to Reuters new poll. Trump has lost 5 points of support, while Clinton has gained 6 points. Since then, Trump has fielded questions over allegations surrounding Trump University as well as donations to veterans’ groups following a January fundraiser.
Clinton leads Trump among women by 15 points. More surprisingly, perhaps, Clinton now also leads Trump among male voters. In mid-May, Trump led Clinton by 7 points among men. Currently, though, Clinton leads Trump by 8 points among men, a 15-point swing.
Trump continues to lead Clinton among seniors. Voters older than 60 prefer Trump by 6 points, 43-37. Clinton dominates among young voters, though. She leads among voters younger than 35 by 30 points, 54-24. Clinton currently enjoys a bigger margin among young voters than President Obama did in 2012 against Mitt Romney.
The Reuters data, in fact, suggests that Donald Trump has a long way to go to reach Romney’s numbers in a number of key groups. Trump currently leads Clinton by just 3 points among white voters. Romney won white voters by 20 points. Trump leads among white working class voters by just 6 points.
One of the political narratives of a Trump candidacy is that he could bring white, working class voters to the Republican party. It is debatable how many of these voters aren’t already voting Republican. In any case, though, Trump is only narrowly leading Clinton among these voters.
Among white evangelicals, Trump leads Clinton by 26 points. This is far lower, though, than the 57 point margin Romney enjoyed in 2012.
Despite the fact that Clinton is still fighting a primary against Sanders, she seems to have a more unified Democrat party behind her than Trump has of Republicans. Against Clinton, Trump has the support of just 71 percent of Republicans. Just over 12 percent of Republican voters are currently supporting Clinton.
Among Democrats, though, Clinton has just over 78 percent support. Only 7 percent of Democrats are supporting Donald Trump. Even among white Democrats, Trump only pulls 9 percent support.
This latest Reuters poll, surveying 1,421 likely voters, was conducted May 30-June 3. The race has changed dramatically since its last survey in mid-May. It will likely change again, several times, before November. The general election campaign hasn’t even officially begun. It is likely to be a roller-coaster.
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