Wisconsin Poll: Statistical Tie Between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump

APPLETON, WI - MARCH 30: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to guests during a campaign rally at the Radisson Paper Valley Hotel on March 30, 2016 in Appleton, Wisconsin. Wisconsin voters go to the polls for the state's primary on April 5. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

A new poll of likely voters in Wisconsin by Marquette University Law School shows Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading Republican rival Donald Trump, 44% to 42%. The result is within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error — a statistical tie.

Clinton’s lead widens slightly to 3 points when Libertarian Gary Johnson (11%) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) are included in the poll. Her lead widens to 5% when registered voters, not likely voters, are included in the poll.

Pete Meachum, Trump’s state director in Wisconsin, issued a statement responding to the results:

The decline in Hillary Clinton’s numbers are due to the fact that she is a walking ‘smoking gun.’ You can be assured that more scandals will continue to plague her campaign. Wisconsin voters want a President that they can trust to fight for them and Donald Trump has a proven record of creating jobs and putting Americans first.

The Badger State has not chosen a Republican candidate for president since 1984, when President Ronald Reagan won re-election by carrying every state except Minnesota in landslide. However, the state is occasionally up for grabs, and Republicans hoped to carry it in 2012, when Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) was on the ticket as Mitt Romney’s vice presidential candidate. The GOP has won a series of statewide elections since the Tea Party wave 2010, which brought conservative Gov. Scott Walker to power.

Trump lost the state — badly — to Republican rival Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the primary, but has since built solid support.

The Marquette poll was conducted among 802 registered and 677 registered voters from Sep. 15-18. The result is little different from last month’s Marquette poll:

In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Aug. 25-28, Clinton was supported by 45 percent and Trump by 42 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent not having a preference. Among registered voters in that poll, Clinton held 42 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, with 19 percent lacking a preference.

In the previous four-candidate matchup Aug. 25-28, Clinton received 41 percent among likely voters, with Trump at 38 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4, while another 7 percent did not pick a candidate. Among registered voters in the previous poll, Clinton received 37 percent, Trump 32, Johnson 11 and Stein 7, with 13 percent expressing no preference.

The September poll also shows Russ Feingold widening his lead over incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) from three to six points, despite Trump narrowing the gap with Clinton slightly.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News. His new book, See No Evil: 19 Hard Truths the Left Can’t Handle, is available from Regnery through Amazon. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.