Box Office Predictions: George Lucas Overrun by a Chick Flick?

Last week was a box office nail biter that went down to the wire. In the end, “Chronicle” prevailed over “Woman In Black,” and Sensei extended his streak to 12 straight weeks. Phew! Other prediction sites? Not so lucky.

This week, even the great George Lucas has his hands full with a Valentine’s Day timed release. This weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. The Vow ($37 Million) – There are forces at work that can even beat “Star Wars” sometimes. A romantic drama on the weekend before Valentine’s Day will be one of those. The timing on this film really couldn’t be better.

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2. Safe House ($32 Million) – Denzel Washington is also such a force at the box office. Big Hollywood’s own John Nolte had some great comments on this in one of his Daily Call Sheets this week. This will be yet another action film of Mr. Washington’s to beat projections. Liam Neeson showed how reliable this audience is right now with “The Grey”‘s success. Look for even better results here.

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3. Star Wars: Episode One – The Phantom Menace 3D ($22 Million) – “Star Wars” audiences are loyal, but this particular franchise entry was a great disappointment to general audiences in 1999 (three words: Jar Jar Binks). On the bright side, it will open higher than 2008’s animated “The Clone Wars,” the franchise’s current lowest opener.

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4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($19 Million) – The Rock takes over for Brendan Fraser, which in itself isn’t bad. The problem is the first one opened when 3-D had a lot more appeal with audiences. That’s not the case today, and this one will finish far behind its predecessor’s overall gross ($101 million domestic).

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5. Chronicle ($10 Million) – The “found footage” films usually post significant drops on their second weekend. This one won’t be immune.

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Does Sensei have it right, or will others prevail?