Box Office Predictions: Summer Box Office Race Tightens with Returning 'Apes,' 'Purge' Sequel

Box Office Predictions: Summer Box Office Race Tightens with Returning 'Apes,' 'Purge' Sequel

A trio of new releases set their sights on the top spot, but who has the edge to win?

The race to be Summer’s top grossing domestic film is also getting tight. Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Transformers: Age of Extinction are well in range of each other.

Sensei’s weekend predictions and revenue results are as follows:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($38 Million)– It appears this film has avoided the political “sucker punches” and isbuilding solid word of mouth. That works well for its second weekendhaul, and will easily break the $100 million domestic mark. As forwinning the Summer’s box office crown, that’s still a long shot.

2. The Purge: Anarchy ($33 Million)This film actually does well off any controversy (considering itsviolent premise), so it really comes down to interpretation of thefilm’s concept. If this sequel widens the narrative started with theoriginal The Purge, it will do very well. If it bogs down into a pretentious “society” reflection, then word of mouth will sink very quickly.

3. Sex Tape ($28 Million) Sensei is being very generous here. The concept is a hard sell, but it may have enough allure to pull a Bad Teacher-like opening. Still, that film had Cameron Diaz as the center of appeal (which worked great for marketing), while this film’s concept has dominated the film’s marketing push. Could go either way, but Sensei sees a respectable opening here.

4. Planes: Fire & Rescue ($22.4 Million)– The first installment wasn’t exactly a blockbuster, so this sequel won’t reach the level of say, a Pixar-like opening. Still, there’s plenty of family audiences available to pull a box office surprise.

5. Transformers: Age of Extinction ($8.7 million) -The race for Summer’s domestic box office crown comes down to this. Film will cross the $220 million domestic mark, and land right at Maleficent’s doorstep this weekend. It then becomes a sprint to the end, with both looking to catch X-Men: Days of Future Past (who’s slightly ahead with $230 million). No doubt a fun race to watch in Summer’s closing weeks.

That’s Sensei’s take. Have a great weekend.