U.S. consumers just delivered a clear message: they’re not as worried as the experts thought.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped by 12.3 points in May, the largest monthly gain in four years, as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy, the job market, and their own financial prospects. The reading came in at 98.0, up sharply from April’s 85.7, and blew past all forecasts by economists.
Econoday’s survey had a range of forecasts from 84.0 to 91.3, with the consensus at 87.3.
It wasn’t just a bounce—it was a breakout.
The Expectations Index, which measures how consumers see the next six months, soared by the most since 2011. That surge suggests that despite months of gloomy headlines, Americans are seeing signs of improvement ahead.
Even before the U.S. and China announced their May 12 tariff truce, confidence was already on the rise. After the deal—which temporarily slashed punitive tariffs and restarted negotiations—sentiment surged further.
“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board.
The report found gains across every demographic and political group, with the strongest rise among Republicans. Consumers said they were more likely to buy cars, homes, and major appliances, and more inclined to take vacations—classic signs of a public feeling financially secure.
There are still mixed signals. Views of the present job market are more divided, and the gap between those saying jobs are “plentiful” versus “hard to get” narrowed again. But in the aggregate, confidence is clearly on the upswing.
Although consumer sentiment remains below historical averages, the sharp May rebound suggests that Americans are growing more confident the economy can weather recent headwinds, including elevated interest rates and global trade disputes.
The report suggests Americans are warming to the Trump administration’s trade strategy, which has involved announcements of high tariffs followed by pauses and lower tariffs when favorable trade deals are reached.