Poll Shows Likud Staying In Power, Zionist Union Dropping Unless Ya’alon, Sa’ar Form New Party

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Avigdor Lieberman (L), the head of hardline nationalist party Yisrael Beitenu, are seen during a ceremony in which they signed a coalition agreement on May 25, 2016 at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem.

TEL AVIV – A new poll shows that if Israel held elections today, the ruling Likud party would remain in power while main opposition party the Zionist Union would be reduced to only eight seats in the Knesset.  

The poll, conducted by the Geocartography Institute, shows Likud dropping three seats to 27, while Yesh Atid would jump from 11 seats to 21, making it the second largest party in the Knesset.

Jewish Home would rise from eight seats to 14. The Joint (Arab) List would maintain its 13 seats and United Torah Judaism would go from six to 10 seats.

Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party would drop from 10 seats to seven and Shas would fall from seven seats to four.

All this could change, however, if a new party comprised of defectors from the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu challenged Likud.

Another poll, conducted by Rafi Smith, predicts that if former defense minister Moshe Ya’alon and former interior minister Gideon Sa’ar were to run on a new party ticket together with Kahlon, they would oust Likud by gaining 25 seats.

Likud would be reduced from 30 seats to 21 while Yesh Atid would only increase by two seats and not the 11 predicted in the alternative scenario. Jewish Home would gain only two additional seats.

The Zionist Union would be reduced to 11 seats. The Joint (Arab) List would gain 13 seats – the same in both scenarios. Shas would fare slightly better with six seats, while United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu would tie with eight.