The Stars are Aligning for a Referendum on Europe

The Stars are Aligning for a Referendum on Europe

The past six months have been a very mixed bag for dedicated Eurosceptics. Tempering the remarkable victory in May’s European elections was the blocking of the European Union (Referendum) Bill in the House of Lords in January. Following that the Government failed to introduce legislation for a referendum bill in the Queen’s Speech, to ensure we have an In/Out referendum after the General Election.

Thank goodness then, for Conservative backbencher Bob Neill MP who is using a rare opportunity to propose a private member’s bill to reintroduce the legislation. This subsequently means David Cameron can invoke the Parliament Act. This rarely invoked act means the Lords cannot block the same legislation twice, so Labour and Lib-Dem MPs cannot get the Lords to do their dirty work again.

The original legislation easily passed through the House of Commons last year, thanks to Labour and Lib-Dem MPs abstaining. Anticipating public anger should they have gone against the popular referendum bill, they let unelected life peers in the Lords strike it down without fear of electoral consequence instead. This time things will be very different.

It will be interesting to watch whether MPs will listen to the majority of the population, or attempt to curry favour with our Europhile Prime Minister to protect their future advancement and promotion within the party.

Fearful of the wrath of the Eurosceptic majority, it is likely the bill will be passed this time, and this will set a legal requirement to hold an In/Out referendum before the end of 2017, whichever party gains control next year. As advocated by our Get Britain Out campaign, the referendum can’t come soon enough.

Another piece of the Eurosceptic puzzle is the gradual procession of politicians and public figures coming out of the woodwork and declaring their support for an In/Out referendum.

This week the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, voiced his support for the referendum and for the most laudable of reasons. Noting the only people who have had a say on our EU membership are now over 57 years old, he said: “I do happen to think that there is quite a strong argument, actually, for there to be a referendum at some suitable point on British membership of the EU, because it seems to me, otherwise, our membership is fundamentally insecure”. At last he is making some sense.

In a strange twist of fate, it may be that David Cameron’s recent manoeuvrings around the In/Out referendum could come to deliver more good news for Eurosceptics.

Although a clear Europhile himself, Cameron has been humbled by the rise of UKIP and is coming under pressure from Conservative MPs and party members. With no choice now but to force the new Referendum bill, Cameron hopes he can hoodwink the British public into voting to stay by achieving limited reform. When voters realise how crudely the Prime minister is trying to mislead them, Britain is to certain to vote for getting out.

As part of his campaign to show strength on the matter, Cameron has written ‘an open letter to Europe’ in a number of continental newspapers laying out his vision for a more democratic and accountable Europe.

Despite calling for “bold leadership”, support for European Commission candidate Jean-Claude Juncker continues to grow, progress of Cameron’s anti-Juncker alliance has stalled, and he has yet to propose a credible alternative candidate for the position.

In reality, the unsolicited letter has further alienated many in Europe who see Cameron as increasingly petulant and his desired renegotiation seems as distant as ever.

Oliver Lane is a Researcher for Get Britain Out

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