Obama Lead Collapses: Iowa Tied

Obama Lead Collapses: Iowa Tied

For in-depth polling analysis, I defer to my colleague Mike Flynn. This latest poll out of Iowa, however, is noteworthy because what you have is the same pollster using the same polling methods and finding Obama’s standing in that crucial swing state collapsing fast.

Just a few months ago, back in May, according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, President Obama held a commanding 51-41% lead over Mitt Romney. What was especially notable is that Obama was over the all-important 50% mark. This is crucial for an incumbent, because undecideds historically go with the challenger.

Two months later, though, in July, Obama’s lead fell in the PPP poll to just five points, 48-43%.

Today, one month later, both men are statistically tied with Obama besting Romney by only two points, 47-45%.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Rasmussen released a poll showing Romney up 2 in Iowa.  

In 2008, Obama won Iowa by almost 10 points.

In just a few months, President Obama has lost eight points of a ten point lead. The real danger zone for Obama, however, is that he is now three points below fifty — which gives Romney plenty of opportunity to make a case for himself as an acceptable alternative.

The tightening we’re seeing in Iowa also mirrors what we’re seeing nationally and in the other swing states.

This race is not only a dead heat, the momentum is with Romney.

Why else would our classless president campaign in Iowa today? He not only broke the precedent of lying low during the other party’s convention, he’s also politicking as a hurricane threatens the Gulf Coast.


Follow  John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC


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