A D+8 Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Virginia poll found President Barack Obama with a two-point lead (49%-47%) in Virginia, even though challenger Mitt Romney holds a 21-point lead among independents.
The partisan breakdown of the poll was: 27% Republican, 35% Democrat, 35% Independent.
In 2008 in Virginia, Democrats had a six-point turnout advantage at the polls, and independents made up 27% of the electorate (Democrats made up 39% and Republicans 33%). Obama beat McCain by one point among independents in 2008 (49%-48%).
In the Q poll, independents make up 35% of the sample — an eight-point increase from 2008 — and Romney beats Obama by 21 points. Romney even leads Obama by seven points when voters were asked which candidate would work work better with “both Democrats and Republicans in Congress.”
But the poll, which surveyed 1,074 Virginia likely voters between Oct. 25-28 and has a margin of error of +/- three percent, has Obama leading by two points.