A new poll by Insider Advantage/Opinion Savvy Survey shows that Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by 7 points, 47% to 40%, but Libertarian Party candidate Amanda Swafford’s 8% could force a runoff between Perdue and Nunn after the November general election.
Under Georgia law, a candidate must obtain 50%-plus-one vote to avoid a runoff with the second place finisher.
Matt Towery, CEO of Insider Advantage, told Atlanta’s Fox5 the race was “competitive.”
“Nunn is not doing as well with independent white voters as her Democratic counterpart for governor,” Towery said. “Perdue, who did well with women voters in both the primary and the primary runoff, continues to perform well, running about equal with Nunn. But among male voters Perdue has a significant lead.”
[F]or Nunn to push this race into a runoff, she must increase her numbers among white men, and among independent voters, who currently favor Perdue by 14 points. She will pick up additional points as African-American voters drift from the undecided camp and as the youngest of voters, who likely have never heard of Perdue, drift more to their natural Democratic voting pattern.
“For Perdue to avoid a runoff,” Towery said, “he must increase his numbers among women voters, and start to appeal to voters who are parents of teenagers or young children.” He elaborated:
Those age groups are Nunn’s base of support. With only 6% undecided, Perdue needs everything he can get to cross the 50%-plus-one vote line for a victory in November. But if the elections were held today, Perdue would slip past a runoff while Deal and Carter would likely be in one.
The poll of 719 likely voters was conducted between August 12 and 13 and has a margin of error of 3.7%.