Poll: Heitkamp, Manchin in Trouble as Constituents Want Brett Kavanaugh Confirmed

Combo photo of Sens. Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp
Associated Press
Sean Moran

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) face significant electoral pressure as another poll released on Tuesday confirmed that a majority of their constituents want Supreme Court Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.

The Judicial Crisis Network (JCN) released a poll on Tuesday revealing that a majority of Manchin and Heitkamp’s constituents want Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Fifty-six percent of North Dakotans want Kavanaugh confirmed to the nation’s highest court, while only 26 oppose his confirmation. A majority of independents, or 51 percent, also want the nominee added to the Supreme Court. Fifty percent of women also want Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Fifty-eight percent of West Virginians want Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, compared to 28 percent who do not want the Senate to confirm Kavanaugh. Fifty-nine percent of independents want the judge confirmed, while only 26 percent do not.

Carrie Severino, the JCN chief counsel and policy director, said in a press release on Tuesday:

Clear majorities in North Dakota and West Virginia – including women and Independents – support  Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Senators Heitkamp and Manchin need to decide whether they stand with Judge Kavanaugh and President Trump, or with the outrageous smear campaign unleashed by Chuck Schumer and the liberal mob.

The JCN also launched a $400,000 TV and digital ad campaign to urge Sens. Manchin and Heitkamp to “listen to their constituents” and confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Sens. Manchin and Heitkamp previously broke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court:

Another poll released on Monday detailed how three-fifths of North Dakotans want Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court amid Heitkamp’s plummeting polling numbers. Only 27 percent of North Dakotans do not want Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court. The survey showed that Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) has a ten-point lead over Heitkamp—51 to 41 percent—with eight percent undecided.

Sen. Manchin faces a competitive Senate amid rampant support from his constituents to support Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. One poll released on Tuesday found that the West Virginia Democrat leads by eight points, while another poll released last week had West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Manchin tied.

The poll released on Tuesday from Gray Television found that 54 percent of likely West Virginia voters support the confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh, while only 27 percent of West Virginians do not.

Another survey from the West Virginia Metro News found that 58 percent of West Virginians want Kavanaugh confirmed, while only 28 percent do not want him confirmed:

New data from Republican pollsters have suggested that the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has energized the Republican base. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that Republicans have nearly matched Democrat interest in the midterm election.

Glen Bolger, a GOP pollster, tweeted on Friday, “Seeing a significant jump in GOP voter interest in the elections this week. The Dem intensity advantage is melting away. Two things: 1. I figure it has to be Kavanaugh effect. 2. Remains to be seen if it lasts. GOP campaigns should not assume their turnout concerns are done”:

If Sens. Manchin and Heitkamp vote against Kavanaugh’s confirmation, they might face an enthusiastic and angry Republican base that might vote them out of office.

Josh Holmes, a Republican consultant, tweeted, “Looking at some poll numbers this morning, it’s impossible to overstate how important the Kavanaugh hearings have been to voters. Like dropping a grenade into the electorate. Ds in red states are not going to like this”:

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