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Early Voting Tallies: 38 Million Total, GOP Lead Democrats by 1% Nationwide

People vote at outdoor booths during early voting for the mid-term elections in Pasadena, California on November 3, 2018. (Photo by Mark RALSTON / AFP) (Photo credit should read MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)
MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty

Early Republican voters are wiping the floor with Democrats in a number of states that will be key in Tuesday’s midterm election.

Democrats are over-performing in one vital state, and other important states are tighter than tight.

As a general rule, Democrats beat the GOP in early voting and Republicans usually turn out in larger numbers for same-day voting. That makes the following numbers counter-intuitive, but this does not necessarily mean, as I will explain below, that there is a red wave crushing a blue wave.

As of November 5, the last day of early voting, a company called TargetSmart gives the GOP the edge in overall early voting. Throughout the country, 38.4 million people have voted early — 16.4 million of them are registered Republicans, 16.2 million are registered Democrats, and 3 million are unaffiliated.

Basically, 42 percent of early votes came from Republicans, 41 percent from Democrats, and 17 percent from other.

Here are the latest state numbers, a percentage breakdown of early voters by political party in the states everyone has their eyes on:

ARIZONA

41% R (+7)

34% D

Though still behind, Democrats are doing four net points better compared to 2014.

FLORIDA

40% R

41% D (+1)

Democrats are doing two net points better compared to 2014.

INDIANA

56% R (+21)

35% D

Democrats have improved by seven net points over 2014.

MONTANA

47% R (+18)

29% D

Democrats are doing three net points better compared to 2014.

NEVADA

38% R

42% D (+4)

Democrats are doing nine net points better compared to 2014.

TENNESSEE

63% R (+34)

29% D

Republicans are doing eight net points better compared to 2014.

TEXAS

53% R (+14)

39% D

Democrats are doing five net points better compared to 2014.

WEST VIRGINIA

54% R (+21)

33% D

Republicans are doing a single net point better compared to 2014.

WISCONSIN

43% R (+6)

37% D

Democrats are doing three net points better compared to 2014.

Some of the above data is a couple of days behind, but it is the most recent. What’s more, 2014 was a huge year for Republicans where the GOP picked up nine Senate seats, 13 House seats, and two governorships — meaning there is some margin for Republicans to slip and still hold on.

But there are a few things we do not know…

1) Who these early voters are voting for — i.e., a registered Republican could be voting for a Democrat. There is just no way to know.

2) Which way are unaffiliated voters moving?

3) Are these additional voters or are they people who voted early who will not be voting on Election Day?

Nevertheless, hard numbers are always more useful than the polls, which have become unreliable, corrupted, and erratic.

One thing we do not see in these numbers, other than a mini one in Nevada (where Republicans could lose a Senate seat), is any sign of a blue wave.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.

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