Poll: Nearly Three-Quarters of GOP Voters More Likely to Back Candidate if They Support Trump’s National Emergency

Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters said they will more likely vote for a candidate if they back President Donald Trump’s national emergency declaration, according to a poll released on Wednesday.

A Morning Consult/Politico poll released on Wednesday revealed a difficult choice for Republican lawmakers mulling whether to vote to nullify the national emergency on the border: Break with President Trump’s efforts to build the wall and secure the border and alienate the GOP base, or attempt to gain Democrats and Independent votes.

A majority of Republicans, or 50 percent, said that they would remain “much more likely” to vote for a Republican lawmaker who backed Trump’s national emergency, 20 percent of GOP voters said that they would “somewhat more likely” back a member of Congress if they backed the emergency, while only 11 percent of Republican voters said it would make it less likely for them to vote for a member of Congress if they supported Trump’s national emergency.

In contrast, 60 percent of Democrat and Independent voters said they would likely vote against a member of Congress who voted in favor of the national emergency, compared to 16 percent of whom would more likely vote for a member of Congress who backed the Trump’s emergency powers to build the wall.

Seventy-eight percent of voters said that a candidates’ support or opposition to the national emergency would factor into the next election, which outpaces previous polls about how much the Trump tax cut legislation and Obamacare votes would factor into the 2018 midterm elections.

This poll may serve as a problem for many Republicans who might face re-election in 2020. Thirteen House Republicans with Democrats in favor of ending the national emergency in February. This includes Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI), Fred Upton (R-MI), Greg Walden (R-OR), Will Hurd (R-TX), and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA).

The Senate will vote on Thursday on a resolution to end the Trump national emergency. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) co-sponsored the legislation with Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) to end the national emergency, and Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Tom Tillis (R-NC) have signaled their support for the bill to end the national emergency to build the wall and make it harder to secure the border in face of Congress’ inability to pass a bill with significant wall funding.

Many Senate Republicans have stood by the president and said that Trump is right to take action on the border.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), a constitutional lawyer and a freshman senator, came out in favor of President Trump’s move to secure the border through the National Emergencies Act.

“It is a crisis, we need to do something about it, the president’s right to take action on it,” Hawley said.

On the emergency declaration for the border, I’m with President ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩. He has the legal authority from Congress to declare this emergency and there should be no doubt the crisis at the border is an emergency situation pic.twitter.com/tZWetj7omK

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) March 7, 2019

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) and David Perdue (R-GA) also signaled their support to secure the border ahead of the Senate vote.

“Montana is a northern border state with a southern border problem. Our communities all over Montana are being torn apart by the flood of Mexican meth coming through the southern border,” Daines said in a comment to Breitbart News. “We must protect our citizens and secure the border.”