Poll: O’Rourke, Warren, and Sanders Trail Biden in Tight Texas Primary

Combo of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Beto O'Rourke
AP/AP/Getty

Democrat presidential frontrunner Joe Biden (D) is maintaining a lead in Texas, but Beto O’Rourke (D) is on his heels, along with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll released on Monday shows.

An Internet survey by the University of Texas and Texas Tribune revealed Biden with 23 percent support from Democrat primary voters. O’Rourke, a former representative of the state, garnered 15 percent support.

Notably, though, are Warren and Sanders’ respective standings. Both candidates showed strong numbers in the race – 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.46 percentage points, this puts O’Rourke, Warren, and Sanders in a statistical tie for second:

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from May 31-June 9 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points, and an overall margin of error of +/- 4.46 percentage points for Democratic trial ballots. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

An Emerson College poll released late April showed Biden with a razor-thin lead over O’Rourke in the Lone Star state.

As Breitbart News reported:

The survey of 342 Democrat primary voters in Texas found former Vice President Joe Biden with a slim 1-point lead over former Rep. Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (D-TX) while Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont comes in third–and the rest of the pack in the Democrat primary there lingers down in single digits.

The poll was conducted from April 25 to April 28 and has a margin of error of 5.3 percent.

Biden comes in at 23 percent, while O’Rourke is right behind him at 22 percent and Sanders is at 17 percent. The next closest candidate, Indiana’s South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, pulls just single digits down at 8 percent. Under Buttigieg are Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 7 percent, former Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary Julian Castro at 4 percent, and Andrew Yang and Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) each at 3 percent.

The UT/TT Poll, however, shows South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) in fifth and sixth place with eight percent and five percent, respectively.

Another part of the poll examined President Trump’s chances of reelection in the state and found that Texas registered voters are virtually “split.” According to the Texas Tribune, 39 percent said they would “definitely” reelect Trump, while 43 percent said they would not.

The Texas Tribune reports:

The remaining 18% said they would “probably” (11%) or “probably not” (7%) vote to give Trump a second term.

“That 50-50 number encapsulates how divisive Trump is,” said James Henson, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and co-directs the poll. But, he added, the number is not necessarily “a useful prediction for an election that’s 16 months away.”

There is a significant chance those numbers will shift once Democrats nominate a single candidate to go head-to-head with Trump.

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