Poll: Plurality of Americans Think Trump Will Be Reelected in 2020

Trump campaign merchandise adorns the recreation center where leaders of several Republican hold meetings in central FloridaLEILA MACOR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
EILA MACOR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

National Public Radio (NPR) led the reporting on its poll with PBS Newshour and Marist on the 2020 election with presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) being on the rise among the 20 candidates who want to challenge President Donald Trump.

But the very last line of the NPR report shows that it may not matter who wins the Democratic nomination, with 46 percent of respondents saying Trump will be reelected compared to 37 percent who think a Democrat will win.

The poll also shows that 49 percent of independents believe Trump will win a second term compared to 32 percent of independents who think he will not.

The poll also shows that just five percent of Republicans think Trump will lose, while 11 percent of Democrats think the same. Fourteen percent said they aren’t sure who will be victorious in 2020.

When it comes to Democrat candidates the poll asked: “Overall, do you think the ideas being offered by the Democratic candidates running for president would generally move the country in … ?”

The results showed that 46 percent said the country is moving in the right direction while 43 percent said the wrong direction, but Democrats by a large margin (86 percent) like the leftist and socialist ideas the party is supporting this election cycle, while 85 percent of Republican reject those ideas.

NPR reported on Warren’s rise in popularity but the lackluster enthusiasm for the Democrat field of candidates overall: 

Warren finds herself in a strong position with Democratic voters ahead of Thursday’s Democratic presidential debate.

Seventy-five percent of Democratic voters now say they have a favorable impression of Warren — that’s up from 53% in January, the last time the poll asked the favorability of candidates or potential candidates. That’s a whopping 22-point jump.

“Elizabeth Warren seems to be on the verge of starting to make significant and serious inroads into this contest,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the poll. “Heading into the debate, she’s very well positioned.”

But former Vice President Joe Biden is hanging in there the poll: 

Former Vice President Joe Biden, who leads in most national polls of the Democratic contest, is also well-liked, but he’s seen a decline since January — 71 percent of Democrats say they have a positive impression of Biden, a 5-point drop, and 22 percent don’t, an 11-point increase in his negative rating.

“One of the initial senses of what Joe Biden presented was that he seemed to be less of a risk,” Miringoff said, “but his performance so far has not been gaffe-proof, and, as a result, people are not as comfortable, and that opened up the door for others, and particularly Warren.”

“The broader electorate isn’t quite sold on either of Biden or Warren,” NPR reported. “Biden has the higher name recognition, and voters overall give him just a 45 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable rating. Voters are similarly split on Warren, who gets a 41 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable rating.”

The poll also showed that Bernie Sanders (D-VT) remains popular with his base but not the general electorate.

“Bernie Sanders having over 50 percent negative has to be concerning to Democrats looking for electability,” Miringoff said in the NPR report.

NPR also highlighted the poll results on Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), which said that she has “worn well with Democrats,” but not with the general electorate — 31 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable rating.

“When you look at the national electorate,” Miringoff said, “there’s still a lot of work to be done on the part of Democrats to start attracting a positive reaction.”

“The survey of 1,314 adults was conducted with live callers via telephone by The Marist Poll and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points,” the poll report stated. “There are 1,160 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. There are 542 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points.”

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