Internal Polling Shows GOP Holds Edge over Vulnerable Democrats in Swing Districts

Republicans continue to hold an edge over vulnerable Democrats in swing districts, internal polling from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) suggests.

Internal polling from the NRCC indicates that voters in key swing districts prefer Republican candidates who oppose impeachment over Democrats who support it. NPR’s Susan Davis said that the House GOP was briefed on the matter and wrote, “Don’t expect any cracks in GOP unity” due to the internal polling’s findings.

“The NRCC briefed House GOP on private polling conducted Oct. 1-3 in 95 districts (55 D / 40 GOP),” Davis wrote.

“Don’t expect any cracks in GOP unity: memo concludes voters ‘are much more willing to vote for a GOP candidate opposing impeachment than a Democrat supporting it,'” she added:

The NRCC briefed House GOP on private polling conducted Oct. 1-3 in 95 districts (55 D / 40 GOP). Don't expect any cracks in GOP unity: memo concludes voters "are much more willing to vote for a GOP candidate opposing impeachment than a Democrat supporting it."

— Susan Davis (@DaviSusan) October 7, 2019

Another internal NRCC poll – taken September 28-30 among 800 individuals in Republican-held congressional districts – found that “voters oppose impeachment across the board.”

Per the NRCC memo:

• In NRCC target seats, voters oppose impeachment: 44% support – 47% oppose. In Republican-held
  battleground seats voters oppose impeachment: 46%-49%.
• Fifty-one percent of independent voters in NRCC target seats oppose impeaching the President.
• Democrats are only consolidating their own base (80% of Democrats across the survey support impeachment) while alienating independents.

“Democrats are only harming themselves; voters are less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supports impeachment,” the memo stated.

Pro-impeachment freshman Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) faced boos during her town hall events over the weekend, with constituents shouting, “Four more years!”

Slotkin’s contentious experience is emblematic of the bigger challenge Democrats in vulnerable swing districts face.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) – who long stiff-armed impeachment efforts due, in part, to these fears – and other top Democrats strategized on how to effectively defend Democrats in vulnerable districts.

As Breitbart News reported:

With impeachment remaining widely unpopular, Pelosi is strategizing on how to assist Democrats in vulnerable swing districts, which Democrats need to secure in order to maintain a majority in the House in 2020. Democrat leadership hopes they can ease the worries of voters who are hesitant on impeachment by sticking to a cohesive party message.

“I’m in Texas and they have a saying here: ‘Don’t Mess with Texas.’ Well, I say, ‘Don’t Mess with the Constitution, Mr. President,” Pelosi said on the call, according to Politico.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairwoman Cheri Bustos (D-IL) – who recently oversaw a mass shakeup in the party’s campaign arm over festering concerns of a lack of diversity – is working with at-risk lawmakers in the crucial swing districts, urging them to “gauge support and test their message through polling in their respective districts — surveys that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would help fund, according to multiple people on the call,” Politico reported.

Democrats hope to sway public opinion on impeachment by repeating Pelosi-approved keywords and phrases such as “betrayal,” “abuse of power,” and “national security.”