President Trump is leading the Democrat field’s top tier of candidates in hypothetical general election matchups, a Zogby Analytics poll released on Sunday shows.
The poll, taken December 5-8, 2019, among 865 likely voters, showed the president edging out all of the top Democrat candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden (D).
While many Democrats believe Biden stands the best chance of defeating Trump in a general election matchup, the Zogby poll showed the president edging out Biden by one percentage point — 46 percent to 45 percent.
The former vice president is maintaining the edge among women, young voters (18-24), and minority voters, but Trump is appealing more to millennial voters. The two are virtually tied among independents:
Among the important swing voters the race continues to be a see saw: Trump is winning with Independents (Trump leads 41% to 40%), consumer blocs-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 37%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 45%) and the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 38%), afraid of losing a job (both at 46%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 48% to 42%), gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 43%). Biden is also beating Trump with suburban women (Biden 47% to 40%), who will factor in big in the 2020 presidential election.
The poll also shows the president edging out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in a general election matchup, 47 percent to 45 percent. However, Sanders enjoys more support from younger voters (18-34), 53 percent support to Trump’s 37 percent. Additionally, the poll found the socialist senator leading Trump among independent voters, 46 percent to Trump’s 39 percent. Notably, though, Trump leads Sanders among union voters, 48 percent to 42 percent.
The poll also shows Trump leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) 47 percent to 43 percent and found the Massachusetts senator leading Trump among women by a smaller margin than her rivals:
In a surprising twist, Warren appeals less than Biden and Sanders do to women voters (Warren only leads Trump 46% to 40%), while Trump receives better numbers with men (Trump leads 54% to 40%). Warren has the support of voters age 18-24 (Warren leads 71% to 20%) and age 18-29 (Warren leads 57% to 31%), while Trump leads with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 50% to 40%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 40%). Warren is doing well with minorities-Hispanics (Warren leads 54% to 33%) and African Americans (Warren leads 74% to 19%). They are virtually tied with voters with no college degrees (Warren leads 44% to 43%) and Trump leads with voters who have college degrees (Trump leads 51% to 42%).
The survey furthermore shows Trump leading Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) 45 percent to 41 percent and Michael Bloomberg (D) 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent:
2020 National GE:
Trump 46% (+1)
Trump 44% (+1)
Trump 47% (+2)
Trump 47% (+4)
Trump 45% (+4)
Zogby Analytics 12/5-8https://t.co/jOi9xeIeKc
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 30, 2019