COVID-19 Cases and Percentage of Positive Tests Up in Texas, Florida, and Arizona, Deaths Down in Florida

People go about their daily activities on South Beach during the Coronavirus COVID-19 pand
mpi04/MediaPunch /IPX via AP
Michael Patrick Leahy

COVID-19 cases in the states of Texas, Florida, and Arizona increased over the two weeks and three days between June 9 and June 26.

The percentage of those who tested positive for COVID-19 is also up over the past two weeks and three days in all three states.

COVID-19 deaths have declined for three consecutive weeks in Florida. Reported COVID-19 deaths declined in the most recent week in both Texas and Arizona, after seeing an increase over the three preceding weeks, though that decline may be due to reporting lags.

Hospitalizations for COVID-19 remain unchanged in Florida, but are up in Texas and Arizona, where there are significant differences by region within each state.

As a result of the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday rolled back some of the re-opening measures in their respective states, ordering bars to close.

The ratio between those who have tested positive for COVID-19 over the past two weeks in Texas, Florida, and Arizona and hospitalizations and deaths in those states during that time is far lower than the ratio between COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and deaths observed in New York and New Jersey in April when those two states were the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.

The dramatic difference appears to be related to the fact that the number of cases have increased among younger people, who are less likely to require hospitalization and have much lower mortality rates.

Table 1 below shows the details on COVID-19 cases and testing from the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in five states where COVID-19 cases have increased from June 9 to June 26:

Table 1
COVID-19 Cases and Testing
Five States Where COVID-19 Cases Are Increasing
June 9 June 26
State Positive Total % Positive Positive Total % Positive
California 133,489 2,486,245 5.4% 200,461 3,771,314 5.3%
Texas 77,523 1,147,355 6.8% 137,624 1,697,334 8.1%
Florida 66,000 1,258,305 5.2% 122,960 1,768,885 7.0%
North Carolina 37,160 535,711 6.9% 58,818 836,725 7.0%
Arizona 28,296 293,213 9.7% 66,548 479,823 13.9%
Source: The Covid Tracking Project

During this 17 day period, all five of these states have seen the total number of COVID-19 cases increase dramatically, ranging from about a 60 percent increase in California and North Carolina, to an 80 percent increase in Texas, to more than a 100 percent increase in Arizona and Florida.

Testing has also increased significantly in all five states. The percentage of those who tested positive has remained about the same in California (declining slightly from 5.4 percent to 5.3 percent) and North Carolina (increasing slightly from 6.9 percent to 7.0 percent), while it has increased in Texas (rising from 6.8 percent to 8.1 percent), Florida (increasing from 5.2 percent to 7.0 percent) and Arizona (which saw the biggest increase from 9.7 percent to 13.9 percent).

Earlier this month, Breitbart News reported that COVID-19 cases increased in Texas, Florida, and California between May 25 and June 9, but that the percentage of those tested who tested positive in the top three states had declined:

But a Breitbart News analysis of COVID-19 testing data over the past 15 days, as reported by the COVID Tracking Project, shows that the percentage of those who have taken the COVID-19 test since the beginning of the pandemic in California — the number-one ranked state for COVID-19 case increases over the past 14 days by the New York Times — who have tested positive has declined from 5.7 percent on May 26 to 5.4 percent on June 9, as Table 1 below illustrates.

Similarly, that percentage has dropped in Texas — the number-two ranked state for COVID-19 case increases over the past 14 days by the New York Times — from 6.9 percent on May 26 to 6.8 percent on June 9.

Florida saw that percentage drop from 5.7 percent on May 26 to 5.2 percent on June 9.

While Florida, Texas, and Arizona have all experienced significant increases in the number COVID-19 cases between June 9 and June 26, the number of COVID-19 deaths in those states during that time period has not followed the same pattern seen in states such as New York and New Jersey earlier in the pandemic.

In Florida, for instance, the number of COVID-19 deaths has declined for three consecutive weeks, as Table 2 below shows:

 Table 2
 Covid-19 Deaths
 May 30 to June 26
Week Ending Florida Deaths Texas Deaths Arizona Deaths
June 26 157 184 62
June 19 188 201 180
June 12 203 151 168
June 5 237 162 119
Sources: Florida Department of Health, Texas Department of State Health Services, Arizona Department of Health Services.

(Note: There may be a lag in reporting of deaths)

COVID-19 deaths in Texas are down from the one week high of 268 in the week ending May 15, but in the four most recent weeks they have increased from 162 in the week ending June 5 to 184 in the week ending June 26.

COVID-19 deaths in Arizona increased from 119 during the week ending June 5 to 180 during the week ending June 19, then declined to 62 during the week ending June 26, though data for the most recent week may reflect reporting lags.

Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson commented on the latest COVID-19 data from Florida in this tweet:

Younger people, who have much lower hospitalization and death rates, account for an increasing percentage of the number of new COVID-19 cases, as the Wall Street Journal reported:

Of Arizona’s more than 66,000 confirmed cases since the pandemic began, nearly 60% had been younger than 45 as of Friday. The Louisiana Department of Health last week announced an outbreak of more than 100 cases linked to a cluster of bars near Louisiana State University. The state is seeing a rise in cases among the 18-to-29 age group but not among those 65 and older, even as it is doing more testing in settings such as nursing homes, said Alex Billioux, assistant secretary of the state health department’s office of public health.

In California, more than 60% of the nearly 196,000 cases were under age 49, state data as of June 24 show. California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week required residents to wear masks in public. Florida reported new daily cases rose from 1,222 on May 27 to 8,933 on Thursday with a median age of 34.

COVID-19 deaths per capita in Texas, Arizona, and Florida remain below the national average of 387 per million, and well below those of New York and New Jersey, states which were the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in March and April.

According to Worldometers, Florida had 158 COVID-19 deaths per million, Arizona has had 217 deaths per million, and Texas has had 82 deaths per million.

In contrast, New York has had 1,611 COVID-19 deaths per million and New Jersey has had 1,699 deaths per million.

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