Nolte: Study Shows Polls are Missing Lots of ‘Shy’ Trump Voters

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate, businessman Donald Trump wait for the can
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

A study shows nearly 12 percent of Republicans say they would not give an honest opinion to a pollster.

The same is true of 10.5 percent of Independents but only 5.4 percent of Democrats.

According to this study, the “missing” or “shy” or “undercounted” Trump voter many suspect is downplaying the public’s true level of support for the president, is real.

In other words, Trump’s numbers, where he always seems to be trailing Rapey Joe Biden, do not reflect reality.

The study, conducted by CloudResearch out of New York, offers this bottom line regardless of whether you are Democrat, Republican, or an Independent: “10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on telephone surveys.”

Only 5.1 percent of Biden voters say the same.

CloudResearch didn’t just come out and ask people if they would lie. Instead, a number of steps were taken for the sake of accuracy.

Participants were first asked about their political preference. Then they were asked about how comfortable they were expressing a true opinion to a phone pollster. Later on, they were asked who they truly supported for president.

When asked why they would lie to a pollster, participants offered up a variety of answers, none all that surprising.

Some said they did not believe their preference would be kept confidential and feel it’s dangerous in this current climate to share an opinion that is not the accepted “liberal viewpoint.”

In a similar vein, others said they feared reprisal for their choice or that the call was being recorded. Some said they were ashamed of holding an opinion that is “frowned upon.”

Some answers had nothing at all to do with the politics or blacklisting. People are just sick of phone solicitations or fear that cooperation with this call will result in even more calls.

CloudResearch broke it down this way:

  1. A lack of trust in phone polls as truly being anonymous.
  2. An apprehension to associate their phone numbers with recorded responses.
  3. Fear that their responses will become public in some manner.
  4. Fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social, and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known.
  5. A general dislike of phone polls.
  6. Malicious intent to mislead polls due to general distrust of media and political pundits (though a sentiment expressed only by a few “shy voters”).

As you can see, three of the six involve people worried about a climate where holding an opinion unapproved by the left — which of course includes the establishment media — will result in some kind of reprisal, or social penalty; the canceling and blacklisting that’s spread like a cancer among the left.

The fact that only a few “shy voters” said they misled pollsters (and by extension the media) due to their own “malicious intent” (number six) surprised me. During the 2016 election, when I still had a land line out here in the swing state of North Carolina, I was bombarded with pollster calls and out of my own “malicious intent” lied to every one of them for spite’s sake. I always identified as a 19-year-old black, female college student “Very Eager” to vote for Jill Stein.

This is nothing new for me. My online poker avatar is a middle-aged black woman named Petula.

Despite my own history of malicious intent, I’m still surprised by the results. As recently as last week, I laid out why I didn’t believe in the “shy Trump voter” theory while appearing as a guest on Dennis Miller’s podcast. Miller did a pretty good job convincing me otherwise, but I’m still surprised.

Nevertheless, the study is convincing. If the study had asked only if you are willing to a pollster, that wouldn’t convince me. My guess is that people are more likely to say they would lie to a pollster than are actually willing to lie to a pollster — if that makes sense. The way CloudResearch went about it, though, is probably the smartest way possible. They also took their time, sampling 1,000 registered voters online for more than a week, between August 19 and 27.

We’ll know soon enough.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.



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