Poll: Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, GOP Yvette Herrell ‘Too Close to Call’ in New Mexico

In this Dec. 18, 2019, file photo, Republican U.S. House hopeful Yvette Herrell of New Mexico waits for a news conference in Albuquerque, N.M. A March 2016 email from Herrell asked fellow Republican state legislators if they were interested in supporting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz for president and if they …
AP Photo/Russell Contreras

A poll released on Sunday found that Rep. Xochitl Torres Small and Republican Yvette Herrell have struck a dead heat in New Mexico’s second congressional district.

An Albuquerque Journal poll found that Torres Small leads Herrell by two points, with the incumbent Democrat at 47 percent, and Herrell at 45 percent. The poll has a 4.8 percent margin of error, which makes the contest for New Mexico’s second congressional district a virtual tie. Nine percent of voters remain undecided.

Brian Sanderoff, who conducted the survey at Research and Polling Inc., said, “Approximately 60 days out, this race is too close to call.”

New Mexico’s second congressional district remains a key race for Republicans’ battle to retake the House majority. Republicans held the seat for all but two years since 1981.

Torres Small beat Herrell during the 2018 midterm elections by 1.8 percentage points.

Torres Small represents one of the 13 congressional districts that President Donald Trump won during the 2016 presidential election by more than six percent, but House Democrats managed to flip in 2018. Trump the district by ten percentage points in 2016. House Republicans only need to retake a net 17 seats to regain the GOP majority.

“It’s no surprise to me or anyone else that this is one of the most competitive races in the nation,” Sanderoff added.

Sixty-two percent of Hispanic voters preferred Torres Small, whereas 30 percent of Hispanic voters preferred Herrell. In contrast, 53 percent of white voters preferred Herrell, and 38 percent of white voters preferred Torres Small.

A poll conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) found that the race was also in a dead heat.

“The race for the [New Mexico] 2nd district is highly competitive,” the Tarrance Group wrote in a memo to the NRCC in July.

Sanderoff noted that the district remains too close for anyone to call.

Sanderoff added, “It’s anyone’s race.”

The Albuquerque Journal polled likely general election voters who also voted in either or the 2016 and 2018 elections, or both elections. The Journal conducted the poll between August 26 and September 2, and the poll sampled 418 voters in the second district and has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.


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