President Trump has a four-point lead among likely Florida voters, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Wednesday revealed.
The survey, conducted September 15-20 among 765 Florida registered voters, 613 of whom are likely voters, showed Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden (D) in the crucial battleground state among likely voters, 51 percent to 47 percent. The two are statistically tied among registered voters, 47 percent to 48 percent for Trump and Biden, respectively. The survey’s margin of error is +/- four percent.
Independents comprise 35 percent of the registered voter sample, followed by Republicans (31 percent), and Democrats (28 percent). Republicans make up the largest share of likely voters, comprising 35 percent of the sample, followed by 30 percent for Democrats and 29 percent for independent voters.
According to the survey:
The result in Florida befits its swing-state status, with sharp differences across regions and demographic groups. A challenge for Biden is his tepid 13-point lead among Hispanics in the 2 state (using registered voters for an adequate sample size); Hillary Clinton won Florida Hispanics by 27 percentage points in 2016, yet narrowly lost the state. Trump also does better than elsewhere in Florida among college-educated whites – though far better still with their noncollege counterparts.
Trump also enjoys a double-digit advantage among registered voters in Florida in handling the economy, 52 percent to 41 percent. However, Biden holds an edge in handling the coronavirus pandemic, 48 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.
The survey also found Trump and Biden statistically tied in Arizona among both registered voters and likely voters. Biden enjoys a slight edge among registered voters in the Grand Canyon State, 49 percent to 47 percent, while Trump takes the lead among likely voters, 49 percent to Biden’s 48 percent. The margin of error for Arizona’s findings stand at +/- 4.5 percent.
Notably, the survey also found that “fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls.”
“Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10,” according to the poll.
Trump secured Florida in 2016 by 1.2 percent and Arizona by 3.5 percent. Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics average had Biden up by an average of 1.5 percent in Florida and 4.4 percent in Arizona.