Wisconsin Poll: Joe Biden and Donald Trump Statistically Tied in the Badger State

Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden holds a 1.3 percent edge over President Donald Trump in battleground Wisconsin — a lead within the survey’s margin of error — a Trafalgar Group survey released Monday found.

The survey shows Biden leading the president by 1.3 percent, garnering 47.6 percent to the president’s 46.3 percent. The Democrat candidate’s lead is well within the survey’s +/- 2.94 percent margin of error, pointing to a virtual tie in the Badger State.

The poll, fielded October 14-16 among 1,051 likely general election voters, found 2.8 percent remaining undecided, followed by 2.2 percent backing Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and 1.1 percent choosing “someone else”:

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #WIpoll conducted Oct 14-16 shows a shrinking Biden lead:
47.6% @JoeBiden,
46.3% @realDonaldTrump,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.1% Other,
2.8% Und. See Report: https://t.co/ihbIlWchF5 pic.twitter.com/BbF6FHRuv4

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 19, 2020

October’s survey indicates a slight move in Trump’s direction, as Trafalgar Group’s September poll showed Biden leading by 2.8 percent, or 47.7 percent to Trump’s 44.9 percent.

Last week’s Restoration PAC/Trafalgar Group survey, taken October 11-13, showed the race narrowing yet again, with Biden leading by just 1.9 percent:

Trump is edging closer in Wisconsin, our brand new RP/Trafalgar poll shows. The race is tightening, says 2016's most accurate pollster.@trafalgar_group @RobertCahaly

Full report here: https://t.co/Hd8SYFk1Az pic.twitter.com/PkphRgipjQ

— RestorationPAC (@restorationpac) October 15, 2020

Monday’s RealClearPolitics average had Biden leading in Wisconsin by six percent. However, the final average in 2016 had Hillary Clinton winning the state by 6.5 percent. To the shock of many, Trump secured the state by less than a single percentage point.

RealClearPolitics co-founder and president Tom Bevan has described Trafalgar Group as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” given its performance in the last two election cycles.

“Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania — two key states he carried — heading into Election Day,” Bevan wrote in a post following the 2018 midterm elections, noting that Cahaly did not poll Wisconsin in 2016.

“Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton,” he added.