Nolte: Donald Trump Jumps to 2-Point Lead in North Carolina, Within 1 in Nevada

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 08: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) welcomes Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (R) to the White House July 8, 2020 in Washington, DC. Trump and López Obrador also met in the Oval Office and are scheduled to deliver a joint press statement later in the …
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A Survey Monkey poll of Nevada shows that the presidential race is down to just a one-point lead for Joe Biden, 50 to 49 percent.

This is not the first poll to show the race tightening in Nevada. A survey conducted by WPA Intelligence for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and AARP two weeks ago showed a two-point race, Biden up 44 to 42 percent.

More recently, a Trafalgar Group poll has it within two — Biden up again 49 to 47 percent.

The RealClearPolitics poll of polls has the Nevada race within four points.

Trump lost Nevada by 2.4 points in 2016, but the state was expected to be a total loss for him this round. Well, that’s what the media told us because of all that demographics is destiny crap, but Trump appears to be, at least according to a number of polls, doing better with Hispanics this year, and that could make the difference in a state such as Nevada.

The early vote returns out of Nevada looks pretty similar to 2016. Granted Trump lost Nevada in 2016, but there’s no indication of a Blue Wave.

The latest polling out of North Carolina shows Trump up two, 48 to 46 percent. It also shows incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis up five, 46 to 41 percent, over Cal Cunningham, who is currently embroiled in a sleazy sex scandal.

This poll even shows Republican Dan Forest within striking distance of incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper, who sucks. I live here. Believe me, this guy sucks. We’re still locked in a form of lockdown. It’s absurd. He sucks.

In the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Biden leads by only 1.2 points in North Carolina. But the early vote is so far looking better for the GOP than it did even in 2016 when Trump won the state by 3.7 points.

All of the battleground states are tight, and in the poll of polls, all favor Biden by only a point or three. This will be the weekend when a lot of people make up their minds, and Trump is closing strong, is the happy warrior, just delivered a 33 percent GDP bounce, while Biden looks frail and more than a little out of it.

Another thing to keep in mind as you look at early vote tallies…

If these polls are correct about Trump juicing his Hispanic support from 25 percent in 2016 to around 35 percent today and his black support from eight percent in 2016 to around 15 percent today (some have it as high as 30 percent), the early vote returns might not be giving us the full picture.

Early votes only count by party, Republican and Democrat and unaffiliated. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to believe a number of the black and Hispanic voters switching to Trump did not switch parties. So while the early vote tabulation is identifying their vote as a Democrat vote, the actual vote inside might be for Trump.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.


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