The presidential race in battleground Arizona is tightening in the final days leading to Election Day, as President Trump is diminishing Joe Biden’s (D) edge in the state, a Trafalgar Group survey released Friday revealed.
The survey found Trump leading in the Grand Canyon State 48.9 percent to Biden’s 46.4 percent. Less than one percent now remains undecided, according to the survey:
New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #AZpoll conducted 10/25-28 shows undecideds starting to break and Trump still ahead:
48.9% @realDonaldTrump,
46.4% @JoeBiden,
2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.7% Other,
0.7% Und. See Report: https://t.co/82DWAxq44d pic.twitter.com/jV0U6s2uTU— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 31, 2020
The survey, taken October 25-28 among 1,002 likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 2.99 percent. It stands as one of the latest polls demonstrating the last-minute shift in the president’s favor in the final days beforea the election.
Similarly, a Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday showed Trump leading Biden in Arizona by three percentage points, or 48 percent to Biden’s 45 percent. The week prior, Biden held a two-point advantage:
Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 45%… https://t.co/gJrWR4QzCN #BreakingPoll #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/O7BdbrOunI
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 29, 2020
RealClearPolitics’ rolling average showed Trump officially holding a narrow lead in Arizona as of Friday evening:
Friday evening snapshot of RCP's average in battleground Arizona officially has Trump with a slim lead over Biden… pic.twitter.com/gULY69mtcz
— Hannah Bleau 🌻 (@hannahbleau_) October 31, 2020
The latest Trafalgar Group survey comes on the heels of Trump’s two stops in the state, holding rallies in Bullhead City and Goodyear on Wednesday. According to Republican National Committee (RNC) chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, a significant portion of signups for the rallies were not Republicans — 24 percent for the Bullhead City rally and 19.5 percent for the Goodyear event:
ARIZONA is fired up and ready to re-elect for @realDonaldTrump!
✅ 23,591 signups for Bullhead City rally
✅ 24.0% NOT Republican
✅ 45.3% (!) did not vote in 2016
Thank you to the thousands of supporters who turned out!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 28, 2020
Another huge turnout for @realDonaldTrump!
✅ 17,251 signups for Goodyear rally
✅ 19.5% NOT Republican
✅ 35.7% (!) did not vote in 2016
Thank you to everyone helping keep ARIZONA red in 2020!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 28, 2020
Robert Cahaly, the chief Trafalgar Group pollster, has cautioned that most polls are not accounting for the “hidden” Trump support in key battleground states.
“People are going to be shocked. A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high,” he told Politico.
“The models of who’s going to turn out this year are very flawed. What type of person comes out for Trump? They’re not a normal election participant. They’re a low-propensity voter,” he continued. “We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now.”
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