Draft Kings Election Pool: Majority in 49 States Predict Trump Victory

Trump victory map
Twitter/@DraftKings
Hannah Knudsen

A Draft Kings Election Pool update posted on the eve of Election Day showed that a majority of participants in 49 states believe that President Donald Trump will emerge as the victor in the presidential election.

Draft Kings’ official Twitter account posted a “DK Election Pool Alert” for its $100,000 pool on Monday, reporting that a majority of people in every state, with the exception of those in Colorado, predicted Trump would win the presidential election:

The entries topped 373,000 as of Monday afternoon.

Democrat panic appears to be the emerging theme as the election draws closer, with progressives sounding the alarm over former Vice President Joe Biden’s prospects in Minnesota — which has not flipped red in 48 years — as well as his status in battleground Pennsylvania, where Trump has attracted tens of thousands of enthusiastic supporters over the last few days. Democrats have also signaled concern over Democrat turnout in Florida, particularly in Miami-Dade County. While Democrats hold a 108k ballot advantage in the Sunshine State moving into Election Day, Republicans outpaced Democrats in early voting, dramatically narrowing the overall gap. Additionally, reports indicate that Hispanic turnout has been greater for Republicans than Democrats in Miami-Dade.

State Sen. Oscar Braynon (D-FL) also acknowledged a lack of turnout among the black community.

“There is not the turnout here [Miami] in the black community that I’ve seen in the past,” he said, according to Politico. “I can speculate about the reasons, but the fact is, it remains concerning.”

High-profile pollsters have also cautioned the public from depending too heavily on polls, the bulk of which have shown Trump trailing Biden. Many, the pollsters say, are not properly measuring the “hidden” or “shy” Trump voters.

“People are going to be shocked. A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high,” the Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly told Politico.

“The models of who’s going to turn out this year are very flawed. What type of person comes out for Trump? They’re not a normal election participant,” he continued, noting the existence of the “hidden” Trump voter. “They’re a low-propensity voter. We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now.”

Economist Arie Kapteyn, who oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll, said they have moved to better identify the largely undetected demographic by asking respondents who they believe their neighbors and friends are voting for.

“We ask them the probability they’ll vote for Biden or Trump or someone else. But we now also ask them a question I think you’d always asked, Robert: ‘Who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for?’ We call it a ‘social-circle’ question,” he explained.

“Now, we actually get a 10-point lead, nationally, for Biden over Trump. But if you look at the ‘social-circle’ question, Biden only gets like a 5- or 6-point lead,” he said.

“One explanation for that may indeed be ‘social desirability.’ In general — and certainly on the phone — people may still be a little hesitant to say to that they’re Trump voters,” he continued.

Trump has continued to draw massive crowds to his rallies in key states in recent days. His Saturday rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, drew an estimated 57,000 people, and his Sunday rally in Rome, Georgia, drew roughly 30,000. Thousands of the signups for his recent rallies are “not Republican” and did not vote in 2016, according to data from Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.

On Monday, Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, stated that there will not be any scenario where Trump will be “declared a victor on election night.”

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