Poll: Majority of Democrat Capitol Hill Aides Believe Republicans Will Retake House Majority in 2022

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) (L) and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) lead a rally and news conference ahead of a House vote on health care and prescription drug legislation in the Rayburn Room at the U.S. Capitol May 15, 2019 in Washington, DC. The bicameral group …
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Less than half of Democrat senior Capitol Hill aides, 48 percent, believe Democrats can keep the House in the 2022 midterms, the first time a majority of Democrat aides felt this way, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The number of Democrats who believed the Democrats could keep the House after the midterm is down by four points since June, showing a good sign for Republicans, according to a Punchbowl News poll.

Ninty-seven percent of the Republicans said they believe they can take back the House. However, since Punchbowl News started their polling, Republican staffers have consistently believed they can take back the House.

Seventy-two overall believe that the Republicans can regain the Hosue majority. This number is up by two percent since June.

Punchbowl News noted this is the first time a majority of Democrats aides said that their party would lose the House majority in the midterms.

The poll added that Democrats in key House races have started to retire, like the embattled Wisconsin Democrat Rep. Ron Kind, which adds to growing concern from staffers about the House majority and their jobs.

The Democrats also lost their majority under former President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden. Losing the House would decimate any hopes of the Pelosi-Schumer-Biden socialist agenda being easier to pass.

The poll also revealed that the momentum in the Senate for the Republicans is strong. A majority (51 percent) of the Republicans also believes that the Republicans could possibly take back the Senate as well. Interestingly enough, that number is up by 14 points since June.

The survey was conducted anonymously between July 12 and 30 online through Locust Street Group, partnering with Punchbowl News. The survey asked 151 senior Capitol Hill aides, which includes chiefs of staff, legislative directors, communications directors, press secretaries, and staff directors.

Punchbowl News previously said the reason for polling aides is “Members of Congress are the ones with the election certificates, but, in many cases, their aides hold outsized power. Senior staffers are the gatekeepers and, in many cases, the decision-makers.”

Republican campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), spokesman Mike Berg said, “It’s good to know there is bipartisan agreement that House Democrats’ majority is doomed.”


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