Poll: Kari Lake Maintains Lead in Arizona Republican Gubernatorial Primary 

Kari Lake
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Kari Lake, former Phoenix Fox 10 news anchor, is still the frontrunner in Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a recent poll.

An OH Predictive Insights survey found that Lake has the support of 40 percent of likely Arizona GOP primary voters. Lake’s support brings her five points higher than her second closest challenger, Karrin Taylor Robson, who earned 35 percent support.

The poll comes after former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) dropped out of the race last week, making the primary election essentially a two-woman race between Lake and Robson.

Robson benefitted from Salmon’s exit more than Lake did, according to poll numbers that account for Salmon’s departure from the race.

OH Predictive Insight’s Chief of Research Mike Noble said:

Seeing the comparison with and without Salmon gives an even closer look into what’s going to happen at the polling booths in August. Although Lake has kept a steady lead, Robson is the clear beneficiary in Salmon’s drop-out; this plus his more recent endorsement might be just what Robson needs to stay competitive in this primary.

While Lake polled just under her current numbers at 39 percent when voters were asked to choose between the three candidates, Robson polled at 31 percent with Salmon included in the poll.

Robson’s five-point increase with Salmon left out of the race can likely be attributed to former Salmon supporters coming to Robson’s side. OH Predictive Insights found that 80 percent of former Salmon voters flocked towards Robson.

After Salmon exited the race last week, he threw his support behind Robson, citing her “temperament and experience.”

Although Robson has Salmon’s support, Lake has the support of former President Donald Trump, who called Lake “a fantastic person” who would make the MAGA movement “very proud.”

Lake has a clear lead with voters identifying as a Trump supporter before a Republican Party supporter.

As OH Predictive Insights detailed:

Kari Lake has a tight grip on the populist, Trump-driven conservatives, while Robson is banking on the traditionalist, establishment wing of the party. Polling results found that likely GOP voters who support the Republican party over Donald Trump are more than twice as likely to support Robson (47%) than Lake (22%), and the converse was also found to be true with 57% of supporters of Trump over the party preferring Lake and only 24% supporting Robson.

Lake and Robson are in a battle to earn the support of the 21 percent of voters who remain undecided ahead of Arizona’s GOP primary on August 2.

Early voting in the Grand Canyon State began on Wednesday.

OH Predictive Insights surveyed 515 likely Arizona GOP voters from June 30 to July 2. The poll’s margin of error is ± 4.3 percent.

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