Trump-endorsed candidate Harriet Hageman leads Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) by 28 points heading into the August 16 Republican primary, according to a WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth poll released Monday.
Fifty-nine percent of likely primary voters supported Hageman, while only 31 percent chose Cheney.
“Those results are based on a model in which 13% of the primary’s voters are Democrats (Wyoming allows party-switchers to vote in primaries),” NBC News’ Marc Caputo reported. “The poll tested two other scenarios, where Democrats are 20% or 25% of the electorate, and Hageman still leads Cheney by 18 percentage points and 12 points, respectively.”
The poll took into account Democrat voters because Cheney has solicited Democrat votes. A Friday Casper Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll revealed that Democrats are unlikely to help Cheney win the primary because too few Democrats live in Wyoming.
“While 69% of registered Democrats who plan to participate in the GOP primary are supporting Cheney, that level of support still leaves her trailing Hageman by a wide margin,” the Friday poll estimated. “But because of the relatively small number of Democrats in Wyoming, crossover voting is unlikely to make a difference.”
Harriet Hageman holds 28-POINT LEAD over Liz Cheney in Wyoming's At Large Republican Primary poll
Harriet Hageman 59% (+28)
Liz Cheney 31%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 18, 2022
The Mason-Dixon poll similarly found Cheney losing to Hageman (52-30 percent). The WPA Intelligence and Mason-Dixon polling are not outliers. Additional polling shows Hageman leading Cheney by 28 and 30 points. PredictIt’s betting odds on Monday show Hageman is favored to handily defeat Cheney by 95 cents on the dollar. Cheney’s odds of winning the contest are pegged at 5 cents on the dollar.
“The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” Brad Coker, managing director of the polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, stated. “That’s a foregone conclusion.”
“This race is more about Liz Cheney than it is about Donald Trump,” Coker added. “Anybody who’s credible, who ran to the right of Liz Cheney would probably win this race – with or without Donald Trump.”