To win and keep their jobs, GMs and NFL Coaches need two things; a Defense that can stop opponents and a Quarterback with a high Total QBR. As great a person and Christian witness as Tim Tebow is, the fact is almost every quarterback with a TQBR near his 29.9 are out of the NFL as he may be, and every quarterback to average a 75 or higher TQBR is still playing in the playoffs.
NFL coaches today are scientists who figure out where they can find a match-up in which a wide receiver is fast enough to beat the corner back on a certain pattern, or an offensive lineman can create a crease for a running back against a certain line-up. We took the Total QBR rankings from ESPN for the last three years, and you simply get enough motivation and leadership to have a chance to get to the NFL playoffs and win once there on a regular basis.
Yes, Tebow pulled it off with an amazing effort, some breaks, and playing in a terrible division last year and pulled off a magical upset of the Steelers, but the facts are it is unlikely that would have ever repeated. On the table below of all qualifying quarterbacks TQBR’s the last three years:
1. All four quarterbacks with a TQBR of 75 or higher are starting in the playoffs this weekend (Kaepernick, Manning, Rodgers and Brady). (100%)
2. Four of the six quarterbacks with a 65 or higher started in the playoffs this year (RG3, Ryan, Wilson and Luck). (67%)
3. Only two of the 10 quarterbacks between 50 (average) and 65 started in the playoffs this year (Schaub and Flacco). (20%)
4. Only two of the 34 quarterbacks who were below average took their team to the playoffs (Ponder was injured and didn’t actually play, and Dalton overthrew an open receiver in the endzone late as Cincinnati lost by six. (12%)
5. Of more concern to Tebow (29.9 QBR) is that 9 of the 13 quarterbacks who had a QBR below 40 played enough the following season to qualify.
Two of the four to survive are the players Tebow hoped to replace. Blaine Gabbert had only a 20.6 last year, but did improve to a 40.9 this year which apparently closes the door for the home team. Mark Sanchez has seen his rating drop from 48 to 33.6 to 23.4 this year, the last being the lowest total of any quarterback except Jimmy Clausen (replaced by Cam Newton after an 11.8 for Carolina), Curtis Painter (replaced by Luck after 22.5 in 2011) and Gabbert.
So the fact is that it is Manning who gives the Broncos a chance to end Ray Lewis career, and Manning who gives the Broncos a chance to rally if the Ravens take the lead.
|3-year Rnk||PLAYER||Team||2010||2011||2012||3-YEAR||Playoff W1?|
|6||Robert Griffin III||WSH||71.4||71.4||Lost|