Iverson's Career Suggests End Near for Wade

Dwyane Wade turned in his second strong performance in a row with 25 points and 10 assists Sunday. The game before he became the first player since Allen Iverson 11 years ago to put up 30 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in a Finals game. At 31 years old Wade is within a year of when Iverson quickly slid from All-Star to out of the league using a same style of play.

Like Iverson, Wade is an incredibly quick player who was unstoppable driving past opponents, but does not have the bulk or outside shot to prolong his career once he can no longer do that.

The two stars have been very similar since college – players who put up huge steals and rebounds for a guard. But more importantly, they have been two of the most unstoppable players on the drive to the hoop as best measured by dividing free throw attempts by field goal attempts. In their final year of college, Iverson’s Free Throw Rate (FTA/FTM) was 49% and Wade’s was 50%, well above the 36% average in college and incredibly high for any guard:

Iverson	G	FT Rate	STL	REB	PTS	Yr	Wade	G	FT Rate	STL	REB	PTS
GTOWN	30	48%	89	99	613	Fr	MARQ	32	34%	79	211	571
GTOWN	37	49%	124	141	926	So	MARQ	33	50%	71	209	710

The stats in the tables for this article are pulled from information at Basketball-reference, which ranks  Iverson as the 18th best player in history. A further look at the two players’ key figures from the age of 22 to 31 shows that Wade has been every bit Iverson’s equal during that 10-year stretch. In fact, he was worth an average of two more wins a year (10 Win Shares to 8 Win Shares) during those 10 years, with a better Free Throw Rate and Rebounds. Iverson was one of the greatest scorers and steals men in NBA history, and yet Wade even beat him out in those two categories four of 10 seasons at corresponding ages:

Iverson	G	WS	FT Rate	STL	REB	PTS	Age	Wade	G	WS	FT Rate	STL	REB	PTS
PHI	80	9	38%	176	296	1758	22	MIA	61	4.6	39%	86	247	991
PHI	48	7.2	45%	110	236	1284	23	MIA	77	11	58%	121	397	1854
PHI	70	6.9	36%	144	267	1989	24	MIA	75	14.4	57%	146	430	2040
PHI	71	11.8	40%	178	273	2207	25	MIA	51	8.8	56%	107	239	1397
PHI	60	6.9	35%	168	269	1883	26	MIA	51	3.3	50%	87	214	1254
PHI	82	9.2	38%	225	344	2262	27	MIA	79	14.7	44%	173	398	2386
PHI	48	2.8	40%	115	178	1266	28	MIA	77	13	46%	142	373	2045
PHI	75	9	43%	180	299	2302	29	MIA	76	12.8	47%	111	485	1941
PHI	72	10.6	45%	140	232	2377	30	MIA	49	7.7	35%	82	237	1082
PHI-DEN	65	6.2	46%	123	193	1709	31	MIA	69	9.6	39%	128	344	1463
22 to 31	67.1	8	41%	156	259	1904	26.5	22 to 31	67	10	47%	118	336	1645

From the age of 23 to 25 Wade had an incredible run in which he got to the line more than twice as often as the league average (58%, 57% then 56%). Opponents used modern software to publicize any time Wade received a call he did not deserve – not hard to do when pulling from a couple of hundred calls a year – in a desperate attempt to allow him to get to the line a time or two fewer per game.

From 26 to 29 he kept up a very strong percentage of getting to the line, but with a notable falloff to  between 44% and 50% each season. However, the big concern for Wade is during the last two seasons he had dropped to barely above the NBA average of 27%, registering only 35% to 39% the past two years.

When a thinner player like Wade or Iverson rely on driving to the basket and drawing fouls, the decline can be quick as they do not have the power game like a bulkier player like LeBron James and do not have the outside jumper to continue to pull up like Ray Allen.

The good news for Wade is that Iverson had one more phenomenal year – at the age of 32 – when he suddenly had his second best season of his career at 11.6 Win Shares and scoring 2164 points and coming up with 160 steals. The bad news is at the age of 33 those numbers dropped about in half and Iverson was suddenly a medicre bench player. By 34, Iverson was a complete liability on the court, and was cut by Memphis and then even by Philadelphia where he had his glory years within the same season.

Iverson	G	WS	FT Rate	STL	REB	PTS	Age
DEN	82	11.6	51%	160	243	2164	32
DEN-DET	57	2.9	42%	88	173	995	33
MEM-PHI	28	0.7	41%	19	79	385	34

The bottom line is Wade could be on the bench in two seasons and out of the NBA in three seasons, so the last hurrah could come during the last game or two of the NBA Finals, or next year.

Rnk	Team	FT Rate
1	Los Angeles Lakers	34%
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	34%
3	Charlotte Bobcats	31%
4	Houston Rockets	31%
5	Denver Nuggets	31%
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	30%
7	Brooklyn Nets	30%
8	Miami Heat	30%
9	Indiana Pacers	29%
10	Los Angeles Clippers	29%

With Wade often playing hurt and not having the same ability to get to the line at will, the Heat have dropped to eighth in the league in their ability to get to the line as a team (FTA/FGA). The Oklahoma City Thunder tied for the NBA lead at 34% with the Los Angeles Lakers, who not only have Kobe Bryant – but the often fouled Dwight Howard.