Value Add: Wright, McDermott Hold Onto Top Spots

It appears Utah’s Delon Wright will hold onto the top Value Add ranking in the updated Top 100 below despite Shabazz Napier’s incredible tournament run. Doug McDermott will be the most valuable offensive player by the second largest margin of any year. Wright improved Utah’s scoring margin by 8.39 points per game, while McDermott was worth 8.30 on offense but slightly less (7.07) once defense was accounted for in a system explained by Sports Illustrated here. 

The Value Add system accounts for every statistic available for each player that either hurts the team’s scoring margin or helps it over what would happen if a good bench player from a power conference took his place. For example, based on Wright’s 8.39 rating we would expect that if Utah won a game 75-68 on a given night, that if a good bench player had taken his place that night they would have lost 70-71 (5 more points generated by Wright on offense, and three points taken away from opponents). Most fans assume the impact would be greater, but when a star player is lost the second best player gets more shots, etc., and a player who changes the score by eight points a game on average will normally dramatically improve his team’s record. Utah had only one other player in the Top 700 players.

The players who still have games left to impact their rating are marked “alive,” but Napier is probably too far behind Wright (improves UConn’s score by 8.05) to catch him even if he led the Huskies to the title, and he is way ahead of third-place Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati. McDermott dropped from third to seven after a very poor offensive and defensive performance against Baylor, but was still by far the top offensive player (8.30 to 7.01 for Billy Baron). The database of all Division 1 players will be updated shortly at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Rnk	Alive?	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Value Add
1		Delon Wright	Utah	6′ 5″	Jr	4.99	8.39
2	Alive	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6′ 1″	Sr	5.21	8.05
3		Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6′ 4″	Sr	5.75	7.37
4		Jordan Adams	UCLA	6′ 5″	So	4.99	7.22
5		TJ Warren	North Carolina St.	6′ 8″	So	5.59	7.16
6		Billy Baron	Canisius	6′ 2″	Sr	7.01	7.16
7		Doug McDermott	Creighton	6′ 8″	Sr	8.30	7.07
8		Trevor Releford	Alabama	6′ 0	Sr	5.06	6.97
9		Xavier Thames	San Diego St.	6′ 3″	Sr	5.37	6.90
10		Marcus Smart	Oklahoma St.	6′ 4″	So	3.38	6.85
11		KJ McDaniels	Clemson	6′ 6″	Jr	3.47	6.62
12	Alive	Frank Kaminsky	Wisconsin	7′ 0	Jr	5.54	6.50
13		Jarnell Stokes	Tennessee	6′ 8″	Jr	4.85	6.47
14		Russ Smith	Louisville	6′ 0	Sr	3.99	6.42
15		Fred Van Vleet	Wichita St.	5′ 11″	So	5.02	6.08
16		Briante Weber	VCU	6′ 2″	Jr	1.78	6.06
17		Nick Johnson	Arizona	6′ 3″	Jr	4.05	5.92
18		Lamar Patterson	Pittsburgh	6′ 5″	Sr	4.32	5.84
19		Montrezl Harrell	Louisville	6′ 8″	So	3.51	5.83
20		Langston Galloway	Saint Joseph’s	6′ 2″	Sr	5.70	5.73
21		Jabari Parker	Duke	6′ 8″	Fr	4.27	5.71
22		RJ Hunter	Georgia St.	6′ 5″	So	4.36	5.64
23		Ryan Watkins	Boise St.	6′ 9″	Sr	5.56	5.61
24		Joseph Young	Oregon	6′ 2″	Jr	6.22	5.61
25		Tyler Ennis	Syracuse	6′ 2″	Fr	3.71	5.55
26		Kyle Anderson (UCLA)	UCLA	6′ 9″	So	3.20	5.49
27		Jordan McRae	Tennessee	6′ 6″	Sr	4.87	5.46
28	Alive	Michael Frazier	Florida	6′ 4″	So	4.26	5.45
29		Cameron Bairstow	New Mexico	6′ 9″	Sr	5.04	5.43
30		Javon McCrea	Buffalo	6′ 7″	Sr	3.94	5.33
31		Kendrick Perry	Youngstown St.	6′ 0	Sr	5.50	5.33
32		Kendall Williams	New Mexico	6′ 4″	Sr	4.80	5.29
33		Perry Ellis	Kansas	6′ 8″	So	4.42	5.25
34		Juwan Staten	West Virginia	6′ 1″	Jr	5.05	5.25
35		Marcus Paige	North Carolina	6′ 1″	So	4.82	5.24
36		Jalan West	Northwestern St.	5′ 10″	So	4.43	5.21
37		Keifer Sykes	Green Bay	5′ 11″	Jr	4.84	5.20
38	Alive	Julius Randle	Kentucky	6′ 9″	Fr	3.60	5.15
39		Khem Birch	UNLV	6′ 9″	Jr	3.02	5.12
40		Gary Harris	Michigan St.	6′ 4″	So	3.91	5.10
41		Rayvonte Rice	Illinois	6′ 4″	Jr	2.73	5.07
42		Alan Williams	UC Santa Barbara	6′ 7″	Jr	2.79	5.06
43		Nik Stauskas	Michigan	6′ 6″	So	6.59	5.00
44		Justin Jackson	Cincinnati	6′ 8″	Sr	1.28	4.99
45	Alive	Willie Cauley-Stein	Kentucky	7′ 0	So	2.22	4.95
46		D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera	Georgetown	6′ 3″	So	5.38	4.93
47		Larry Nance	Wyoming	6′ 8″	Jr	2.41	4.92
48		Shawn Jones	Middle Tennessee	6′ 8″	Sr	3.06	4.91
49		Bryce Cotton	Providence	6′ 1″	Sr	6.63	4.90
50		Deonte Burton (Nevada)	Nevada	6′ 1″	Sr	4.92	4.89
51		Tymell Murphy	FIU	6′ 5″	Sr	3.09	4.88
52		Jacob Parker	Stephen F. Austin	6′ 6″	Jr	4.02	4.85
53		TJ Bray	Princeton	6′ 5″	Sr	5.55	4.85
54		Okaro White	Florida St.	6′ 8″	Sr	3.76	4.79
55		Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	6′ 5″	So	3.52	4.74
56		Ron Baker	Wichita St.	6′ 3″	So	3.71	4.72
57		Josh Scott	Colorado	6′ 10″	So	4.21	4.72
58		Aaron Craft	Ohio St.	6′ 2″	Sr	1.37	4.70
59		Markel Brown	Oklahoma St.	6′ 3″	Sr	4.61	4.68
60		Egidijus Mockevicius	Evansville	6′ 10″	So	2.80	4.66
61		Seth Tuttle	Northern Iowa	6′ 8″	Jr	4.30	4.61
62		Joel Embiid	Kansas	7′ 0	Fr	2.04	4.57
63	Alive	Casey Prather	Florida	6′ 6″	Sr	3.44	4.45
64		Andrew Wiggins	Kansas	6′ 8″	Fr	3.80	4.39
65		Devin Oliver	Dayton	6′ 7″	Sr	4.15	4.39
66		Branden Dawson	Michigan St.	6′ 6″	Jr	3.03	4.39
67		Trevor Cooney	Syracuse	6′ 4″	So	3.64	4.39
68		CJ Wilcox	Washington	6′ 5″	Sr	4.78	4.37
69		Tyreek Duren	La Salle	6′ 0	Sr	3.31	4.37
70		Talib Zanna	Pittsburgh	6′ 9″	Jr	3.82	4.36
71	Alive	Markus Kennedy	SMU	6′ 9″	So	1.80	4.36
72	Alive	Ben Brust	Wisconsin	6′ 1″	Sr	4.57	4.33
73		Cory Jefferson	Baylor	6′ 9″	Sr	3.41	4.33
74		Bobby Portis	Arkansas	6′ 10″	Fr	2.84	4.32
75		Brandon Edwards	UT Arlington	6′ 6″	Sr	4.69	4.31
76		Taylor Braun	North Dakota St.	6′ 7″	Sr	4.75	4.28
77		TJ McConnell	Arizona	6′ 1″	Jr	2.37	4.28
78	Alive	Patric Young	Florida	6′ 9″	Sr	2.63	4.27
79		Karvel Anderson	Robert Morris	6′ 2″	Sr	5.33	4.26
80		TaShawn Thomas	Houston	6′ 8″	Jr	3.18	4.25
81	Alive	Tyler Johnson	Fresno St.	6′ 4″	Sr	4.05	4.23
82		Aaron Gordon	Arizona	6′ 9″	Fr	1.97	4.23
83		DeAndre Kane	Iowa St.	6′ 4″	Sr	3.63	4.22
84		Daniel Miller	Georgia Tech	6′ 11″	Sr	2.40	4.21
85		Mike Moser	Oregon	6′ 8″	Sr	2.51	4.20
86		Brady Heslip	Baylor	6′ 2″	Sr	4.98	4.16
87		Jordan Bachynski	Arizona St.	8′ 2″	Sr	2.19	4.15
88	Alive	Aaron Harrison	Kentucky	6′ 6″	Fr	4.00	4.12
89		John Brown	High Point	6′ 8″	So	3.98	4.11
90		Cleanthony Early	Wichita St.	6′ 8″	Sr	3.59	4.10
91		Sam Dower	Gonzaga	6′ 9″	Sr	3.47	4.08
92		Brice Johnson	North Carolina	6′ 9″	So	2.20	4.07
93		JJ Mann	Belmont	6′ 6″	Sr	3.77	4.07
94		Jason Calliste	Oregon	6′ 2″	Sr	4.67	4.07
95	Alive	Sam Dekker	Wisconsin	6′ 7″	So	3.48	4.06
96		Dezmine Wells	Maryland	6′ 5″	Jr	2.88	4.04
97		Coty Clarke	Arkansas	6′ 7″	Sr	2.07	4.02
98		Stephen Holt	Saint Mary’s	6′ 4″	Sr	5.28	4.02
99		Manny Atkins	Georgia St.	6′ 6″	Sr	3.63	4.02
100		Aaron Thomas	Florida St.	6′ 5″	So	2.63	4.01