On Friday, Conference USA was established as the best of the “other five” conferences. Saturday the pecking order of the big five will be determined by if Wisconsin can upset LSU and/or Clemson can upset Georgia to challenge the long-reign of the SEC, while the Big 12 would like to follow-up on Oklahoma’s thrashing of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl with an Oklahoma State upset of defending champ Florida State.
Below are the rankings of the 10 FBS conferences through the weekday games based on the system explained here, with a table at the end showing all game times and winning margins to date in conference clashes.
- Big Ten +22 (1-0) – Michigan State’s impressive 45-7 win does not count, an upset by Wisconsin (of LSU) or Penn State (of Central Florida) would help.
- Conference USA +21 (2-0) – UTSA beat Houston and Western Kentucky upset Bowling Green – both by 20 points or more for a phenomenal 2-0 start.
- Pac-12 +9 (1-2) – Arizona’s impressive blowout of UNLV made up for a second narrow loss to put the Pac-12 in positive territory.
- Sun Belt +7 (1-0) – No games Friday, Troy should win against UAB while Georgia Southern would be a longshot to upset NC State.
- Big 12 No Rating (0-0) – The first weekend is all about the chance for Oklahoma State to upset Florida State – all four other games look like forgone conclusions.
- American -1 (1-2) – Both Houston (vs. UTSA) and UConn (vs. BYU) were crushed Friday to undo Thursday’s excitement from Temple’s update.
- SEC -6 (1-1) – Wins by Georgia (vs. Clemson) and LSU (vs. Wisconsin) are slight favorites a win by both would establish the SEC as dominant again, while a loss by both would be an indicator things are much more balanced in the first season of the 4-team playoff.
- ACC -7 (0-1) – If Florida State holds of Top 10 opponent Oklahoma State, the key would be a slight upset by Clemson over Georgia to show the conference is more than one team.
- Mountain West -19 (1-2) – Colorado State pulled a nice upset over in-state rival Colorado, but the conference still dropped with UNLV getting demolished by Arizona.
- Mid-American -47 (0-1) – Things look bleak as their one favorite – Bowling Green – was demolished and none of their three teams in action Saturday have even a 20% chance of winning.
The number to the left of each team either notes the scoring margin (e.g. Connecticut’s -25 means a 25-point loss to BYU) or the start time of their game. If a number appears in the far right, it indicates the conference rating for that team’s performance based on the system explained here.
| Res | AMERICAN ATHL | chance | Opponent | Conf | Diff | ConfRnk | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25 | Connecticut | 17% | BYU | Ind | 5 | 5 | -15 |
| -20 | Houston | 74% | UT San Antonio | CUSA | -8 | -7 | -35 |
| Sun | SMU | 6% | Baylor | Big 12 | 22 | 0 | |
| 30 | Temple | 9% | Vanderbilt | SEC | 13 | 4 | 48 |
| 8am | UCF | 56% | Penn St | Big 10 | 5 | -12 | |
| 1.62 | almost 2-3 | ||||||
| ACC | |||||||
| 3pm | Boston College | 94% | Massachusetts | MAC | -23 | 5 | |
| 5pm | Clemson | 48% | Georgia | SEC | 19 | -11 | |
| 8pm | Florida St | 69% | Oklahoma St | Big 12 | 20 | -23 | |
| noon | NC State | 76% | Ga Southern | SB | -18 | 13 | |
| noon | Virginia | 6% | UCLA | Pac 12 | 18 | 13 | |
| -7 | Wake Forest | 69% | ULM | SB | -7 | 7 | -7 |
| 3.62 | almost 4-2 | ||||||
| BIG TEN | |||||||
| noon | Michigan | 98% | Appalachian St | SB | -24 | -3 | |
| 3pm | Nebraska | 85% | FL Atlantic | CUSA | -9 | -3 | |
| 3pm | Northwestern | 77% | California | Pac 12 | -9 | 1 | |
| noon | Ohio St | 81% | Navy | Ind | 2 | -11 | |
| 8am | Penn St | 44% | UCF | Amer | 7 | 0 | |
| noon | Purdue | 84% | W Michigan | MAC | -26 | 16 | |
| 3 | Rutgers | 19% | Washington St | Pac 12 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 9pm | Wisconsin | 41% | LSU | SEC | 20 | -10 | |
| 5.29 | at least 5-3 | ||||||
| BIG 12 | |||||||
| Sun | Baylor | 94% | SMU | Amer | -7 | -8 | |
| 7pm | Oklahoma | 99% | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | -20 | -9 | |
| 8pm | Oklahoma St | 31% | Florida St | ACC | 28 | -10 | |
| 8pm | Texas | 86% | North Texas | CUSA | -4 | -2 | |
| 3pm | West Virginia | 7% | Alabama | SEC | 25 | 9 | |
| 3.17 | at least 3-2 | ||||||
| Conference USA | |||||||
| 3pm | FL Atlantic | 15% | Nebraska | Big 10 | 11 | -6 | |
| 7pm | Louisiana Tech | 1% | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 22 | 5 | |
| 3pm | Marshall | 94% | Miami OH | MAC | -26 | -11 | |
| 8pm | North Texas | 14% | Texas | Big 12 | 15 | -11 | |
| 3pm | Rice | 9% | Notre Dame | Ind | 16 | -8 | |
| 7pm | Southern Miss | 99% | Mississippi St | SEC | 12 | 12 | |
| noon | UAB | 66% | Troy | SB | -13 | 8 | |
| 20 | UT San Antonio | 26% | Houston | Amer | 5 | -6 | 19 |
| 8pm | UTEP | 69% | New Mexico | MWC | -13 | 9 | |
| 28 | W Kentucky | 33% | Bowling Green | MAC | 0 | -6 | 22 |
| 4.26 | at least 4-6 | 6 | |||||
| MID-AMERICAN | |||||||
| -28 | Bowling Green | 67% | W Kentucky | CUSA | -3 | -16 | -47 |
| 3pm | Massachusetts | 6% | Boston College | ACC | -2 | 13 | |
| 3pm | Miami OH | 6% | Marshall | CUSA | -4 | 16 | |
| noon | W Michigan | 16% | Purdue | Big 10 | -8 | 11 | |
| 0.95 | almost 1-3 | ||||||
| MOUNTAIN WEST | |||||||
| -22 | Boise St | 30% | Mississippi | SEC | 13 | -11 | -19 |
| 14 | Colorado St | 44% | Colorado | Pac 12 | -1 | -3 | 10 |
| 7pm | Fresno St | 14% | USC | Pac 12 | 19 | -8 | |
| 10pm | Hawaii | 5% | Washington | Pac 12 | 15 | 6 | |
| 8pm | New Mexico | 69% | UTEP | CUSA | -24 | 10 | |
| -45 | UNLV | 6% | Arizona | Pac 12 | 17 | 1 | -27 |
| Sun | Utah St | 44% | Tennessee | SEC | 9 | -12 | |
| 2.12 | at least 2-5 | ||||||
| PAC12 | |||||||
| 45 | Arizona | 94% | UNLV | MWC | -10 | -1 | 34 |
| 3pm | California | 23% | Northwestern | Big 10 | 7 | 19 | |
| -14 | Colorado | 56% | Colorado St | MWC | -3 | 14 | -3 |
| noon | UCLA | 94% | Virginia | ACC | -4 | -7 | |
| 7pm | USC | 86% | Fresno St | MWC | -1 | -3 | |
| 10pm | Washington | 5% | Hawaii | MWC | -9 | -4 | |
| -3 | Washington St | 19% | Rutgers | Big 10 | -6 | 5 | -4 |
| 3.77 | almost 4-3 | 3 | |||||
| SEC | |||||||
| 3pm | Alabama | 93% | West Virginia | Big 12 | 1 | -11 | |
| 7pm | Florida | 99% | Idaho | SB | -29 | 5 | |
| 5pm | Georgia | 52% | Clemson | ACC | 14 | -2 | |
| 9pm | LSU | 59% | Wisconsin | Big 10 | 16 | -6 | |
| 22 | Mississippi | 70% | Boise St | MWC | 5 | 0 | 27 |
| 7pm | Mississippi St | 99% | Southern Miss | CUSA | -27 | 4 | |
| Sun | Tennessee | 56% | Utah St | MWC | 3 | 7 | |
| -30 | Vanderbilt | 91% | Temple | Amer | -12 | 3 | -39 |
| 6.19 | at least 6-2 | ||||||
| SUN BELT | |||||||
| noon | Appalachian St | 2% | Michigan | Big 10 | 11 | 6 | |
| noon | Ga Southern | 24% | NC State | ACC | -4 | 0 | |
| 7pm | Idaho | 1% | Florida | SEC | 12 | 11 | |
| noon | Troy | 66% | UAB | CUSA | -17 | -6 | |
| 7 | ULM | 31% | Wake Forest | ACC | -4 | -5 | -2 |
| 1.24 | at least 1-4 |
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