Unless West Virginia suffers a major upset to Maryland, the Big 12 likely stays in 1st place (+11 above average) until season finales.
Few meaningful inter-conference games remain for the Pac-12 and SEC (tied in 2nd at +10). The ACC (+8) and Big Ten (+7) could move up or down from 4th and 5th with many big games, and the American Athletic (+0, 6th) could surge if East Carolina and Central Florida can pull upsets of Power 5 teams.
The Sun Belt (-8, 8th) can only catch the Mid-American (-6, 7th) if UTSA and ODU manage upsets and Northern Illinois and Bowling Green do not. The Mountain West (-13, 9th) must break their fall with a Boise State win over Virginia, or they may fall to last behind the Sun Belt (-14, 10th).
This is the last week of the big scoreboard, as conference play takes over next week.
ACC Plays 6 FBS Conferences
The ACC nudged one point ahead of the Big Ten to rank as the 4th best conference, and this week marks their last chance to move up or drop back behind the Big Ten. Wake Forest pulling a minor upset over Indiana may be needed to hold off the Big Ten. Virginia is a toss-up against Boise State of the Mountain West and Virginia Tech is a light favorite over East Carolina. The Conference will go up or down based on if they are better or worse than their projected 6-4 record and +55 margin overall. But with three non-conference games projected to be within a field goal, this is a final test before conference play takes over.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | ACC +8 | 3 | 57% | 1:00pm ET | N Illinois | Mid-Am -6 |
| Clemson | ACC +8 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Duke | ACC +8 | -7 | 28% | 12:00pm ET | Georgia Tech | ACC +8 |
| Florida St | ACC +8 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Georgia Tech | ACC +8 | 7 | 72% | 12:00pm ET | Duke | ACC +8 |
| Louisville | ACC +8 | 28 | 97% | 6:00pm ET | Samford | |
| Miami FL | ACC +8 | 0% | Idle | |||
| NC State | ACC +8 | 11 | 77% | 8:00pm ET | South Alabama | SunB -14 |
| North Carolina | ACC +8 | 31 | 99% | 12:30pm ET | Delaware | FCS |
| Pittsburgh | ACC +8 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Syracuse | ACC +8 | -18 | 11% | 12:00pm ET | LSU | SEC +10 |
| Virginia | ACC +8 | 0 | 50% | Fri 09.25 | Boise St | Mt West -13 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC +8 | 3 | 60% | 3:30pm ET | East Carolina | Amer +0 |
| Wake Forest | ACC +8 | -3 | 43% | 12:30pm ET | Indiana | Big Ten +8 |
| 6-4, +55 points | 55 | 5.9 | ACC Proj |
American Athletic: Chances to Continue Surge vs. ACC and SEC
If East Carolina and Central Florida upset Virginia Tech of the ACC and South Carolina of the SEC, the American Athletic would enjoy a lot of steam heading into conference play. Memphis appeared to replace Cincinnati as the best non-Power 5 team, and they proved it Thursday by beating the Bearcats 53-46.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | Amer +0 | -8 | 33% | Thu 09.24 | Memphis | Amer +0 |
| Connecticut | Amer +0 | -11 | 23% | 12:00pm ET | Navy | Amer +0 |
| East Carolina | Amer +0 | -3 | 40% | 3:30pm ET | Virginia Tech | ACC +8 |
| Houston | Amer +0 | 17 | 84% | 8:00pm ET | Texas St | SunB -14 |
| Memphis | Amer +0 | 8 | 67% | Thu 09.24 | Cincinnati | Amer +0 |
| Navy | Amer +0 | 11 | 77% | 12:00pm ET | Connecticut | Amer +0 |
| SMU | Amer +0 | 9 | 68% | 7:00pm ET | James Madison | FCS |
| South Florida | Amer +0 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Temple | Amer +0 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Tulane | Amer +0 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Tulsa | Amer +0 | 0% | Idle | |||
| UCF | Amer +0 | -7 | 35% | 12:00pm ET | South Carolina | SEC +10 |
| 4-4, +16 points | 16 | 4.3 | Amer Proj |
Big 12: Lowly Kansas Could Cement Conference as No. 1
The Big 12 beat the SEC in big games consecutive weeks to move into No. 1, and a Kansas upset of Rutgers could cement the conference as the best top to bottom. This assumes West Virginia does not stumble against Maryland.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | Big 12 +11 | 28 | 97% | 3:00pm ET | Rice | CUSA – 8 |
| Iowa St | Big 12 +11 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Kansas | Big 12 +11 | -4 | 40% | 12:00pm ET | Rutgers | Big Ten +8 |
| Kansas St | Big 12 +11 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Oklahoma | Big 12 +11 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Oklahoma St | Big 12 +11 | 1 | 51% | 3:30pm ET | Texas | Big 12 +11 |
| TCU | Big 12 +11 | 10 | 78% | 4:45pm ET | Texas Tech | Big 12 +11 |
| Texas | Big 12 +11 | -1 | 49% | 3:30pm ET | Oklahoma St | Big 12 +11 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 +11 | -10 | 22% | 4:45pm ET | TCU | Big 12 +11 |
| West Virginia | Big 12 +11 | 16 | 82% | 3:00pm ET | Maryland | Big Ten +8 |
| 4-3, +40 points | 40 | 4.2 | Big 12 Proj |
Big Ten takes on 5 Conferences and BYU
The Big Ten takes on five other conferences and a tough independent test against BYU. Overall the conference projects to go 10-4 with an 187-point margin of victory, but there are four big games expected to come down to four points either way. So they could shoot way up or drop down based on those four games.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Big Ten +7 | 12 | 76% | 4:00pm ET | MTSU | CUSA – 8 |
| Indiana | Big Ten +7 | 3 | 57% | 12:30pm ET | Wake Forest | ACC +8 |
| Iowa | Big Ten +7 | 31 | 99% | 3:30pm ET | North Texas | CUSA – 8 |
| Maryland | Big Ten +7 | -16 | 18% | 3:00pm ET | West Virginia | Big 12 +11 |
| Michigan | Big Ten +7 | -2 | 47% | 12:00pm ET | BYU | ind +0 |
| Michigan St | Big Ten +7 | 25 | 95% | 12:00pm ET | C Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten +7 | 9 | 68% | 3:30pm ET | Ohio | Mid-Am -6 |
| Nebraska | Big Ten +7 | 27 | 96% | 12:00pm ET | Southern Miss | CUSA – 8 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten +7 | 21 | 94% | 8:00pm ET | Ball St | Mid-Am -6 |
| Ohio St | Big Ten +7 | 28 | 97% | 3:30pm ET | W Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| Penn St | Big Ten +7 | 17 | 87% | 3:30pm ET | San Diego St | Mt West -13 |
| Purdue | Big Ten +7 | -2 | 47% | 12:00pm ET | Bowling Green | Mid-Am -6 |
| Rutgers | Big Ten +7 | 4 | 60% | 12:00pm ET | Kansas | Big 12 +11 |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten +7 | 30 | 98% | 8:00pm ET | Hawaii | Mt West -13 |
| 10-4, +187 points | 187 | 10.4 | Big Ten Proj |
Conference USA Hope UTSA or ODU Can Pull Upsets
Conference USA started hot, but cooled off, but UTSA and ODU touchdown underdogs who could move the conference up with upsets.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | CUSA – 8 | -6 | 33% | 7:00pm ET | FL Atlantic | CUSA – 8 |
| FL Atlantic | CUSA – 8 | 6 | 67% | 7:00pm ET | Charlotte | CUSA – 8 |
| Florida Intl | CUSA – 8 | -18 | 12% | 2:30pm ET | Louisiana Tech | CUSA – 8 |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA – 8 | 18 | 88% | 2:30pm ET | Florida Intl | CUSA – 8 |
| Marshall | CUSA – 8 | 9 | 75% | 3:30pm ET | Kent | Mid-Am -6 |
| MTSU | CUSA – 8 | -12 | 24% | 4:00pm ET | Illinois | Big Ten +8 |
| North Texas | CUSA – 8 | -31 | 1% | 3:30pm ET | Iowa | Big Ten +8 |
| Old Dominion | CUSA – 8 | -8 | 27% | 3:30pm ET | Appalachian St | SunB -14 |
| Rice | CUSA – 8 | -28 | 3% | 3:00pm ET | Baylor | Big 12 +11 |
| Southern Miss | CUSA – 8 | -27 | 4% | 12:00pm ET | Nebraska | Big Ten +8 |
| UT San Antonio | CUSA – 8 | -7 | 31% | 7:00pm ET | Colorado St | Mt West -13 |
| UTEP | CUSA – 8 | 31 | 99% | 8:00pm ET | Incarnate Word | FCS |
| W Kentucky | CUSA – 8 | 9 | 68% | 3:30pm ET | Miami OH | Mid-Am -6 |
| 5-8, -64 points | (64) | 5.3 | CUSA Proj |
Independents and FCS
The teams not in FBS Conferences include national contender Notre Dame, a very good BYU team, and solid Idaho State and James Madison teams capable of upsets this week.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | ind +0 | 1 | 52% | 6:00pm ET | E Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| BYU | ind +0 | 2 | 53% | 12:00pm ET | Michigan | Big Ten +8 |
| Delaware | FCS | -31 | 1% | 12:30pm ET | North Carolina | ACC +8 |
| Idaho St | FCS | 0 | 50% | 9:00pm ET | UNLV | Mt West -13 |
| Incarnate Word | FCS | -31 | 1% | 8:00pm ET | UTEP | CUSA – 8 |
| James Madison | FCS | -9 | 32% | 7:00pm ET | SMU | Amer +0 |
| Nicholls St | FCS | -49 | 0% | 1:30pm ET | Colorado | Pac 12 +10 |
| Notre Dame | Ind +0 | 29 | 98% | 3:30pm ET | Massachusetts | Mid-Am -6 |
| Samford | FCS | -28 | 3% | 6:00pm ET | Louisville | ACC +8 |
| Southern Univ | FCS | -53 | 0% | 12:00pm ET | Georgia | SEC +10 |
Mid-American: Bowling Green and Northern Illinois Shots at Upsets
Northern Illinois showed why an 8-team playoff including one non-Power 5 team is needed. Northern Illinois came close to upsetting No. 1 Ohio State in a game that would have been a perfect opening round. They have a chance for a win over the ACC when they take on Boston College, and Bowling Green can get a win over the Big Ten and Purdue.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | Mid-Am -6 | -10 | 27% | 7:00pm ET | ULL | SunB -14 |
| Ball St | Mid-Am -6 | -21 | 6% | 8:00pm ET | Northwestern | Big Ten +8 |
| Bowling Green | Mid-Am -6 | 2 | 53% | 12:00pm ET | Purdue | Big Ten +8 |
| Buffalo | Mid-Am -6 | 8 | 67% | 3:30pm ET | Nevada | Mt West -13 |
| C Michigan | Mid-Am -6 | -25 | 5% | 12:00pm ET | Michigan St | Big Ten +8 |
| E Michigan | Mid-Am -6 | -1 | 48% | 6:00pm ET | Army | ind +0 |
| Kent | Mid-Am -6 | -9 | 25% | 3:30pm ET | Marshall | CUSA – 8 |
| Massachusetts | Mid-Am -6 | -29 | 2% | 3:30pm ET | Notre Dame | Ind +0 |
| Miami OH | Mid-Am -6 | -9 | 32% | 3:30pm ET | W Kentucky | CUSA – 8 |
| N Illinois | Mid-Am -6 | -3 | 43% | 1:00pm ET | Boston College | ACC +8 |
| Ohio | Mid-Am -6 | -9 | 32% | 3:30pm ET | Minnesota | Big Ten +8 |
| Toledo | Mid-Am -6 | 11 | 75% | 7:00pm ET | Arkansas St | SunB -14 |
| W Michigan | Mid-Am -6 | -28 | 3% | 3:30pm ET | Ohio St | Big Ten +8 |
| 4-9, -123 Points | (123) | 4.2 | Mid-Am Proj |
Mountain West: Struggling Conference Needs Boise State Win
The Mountain West won only three games total the last two weeks, with only Air Force, Boise State, and Hawaii playing well. The conference desperately needs Boise State to beat Virginia and cannot suffer a Colorado upset to UTSA.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | Mt West -13 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Boise St | Mt West -13 | 0 | 50% | Fri 09.25 | Virginia | ACC +8 |
| Colorado St | Mt West -13 | 7 | 69% | 7:00pm ET | UT San Antonio | CUSA – 8 |
| Fresno St | Mt West -13 | 1 | 52% | 10:30pm ET | San Jose St | Mt West -13 |
| Hawaii | Mt West -13 | -30 | 2% | 8:00pm ET | Wisconsin | Big Ten +8 |
| Nevada | Mt West -13 | -8 | 33% | 3:30pm ET | Buffalo | Mid-Am -6 |
| New Mexico | Mt West -13 | 3 | 58% | 3:00pm ET | Wyoming | Mt West -13 |
| San Diego St | Mt West -13 | -17 | 13% | 3:30pm ET | Penn St | Big Ten +8 |
| San Jose St | Mt West -13 | -1 | 48% | 10:30pm ET | Fresno St | Mt West -13 |
| UNLV | Mt West -13 | 0 | 50% | 9:00pm ET | Idaho St | FCS |
| Utah St | Mt West -13 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Wyoming | Mt West -13 | -3 | 42% | 3:00pm ET | New Mexico | Mt West -13 |
| 4-6, -48 Points | (48) | 4.2 | Mt West Proj |
Pac-12 Set at +10 as Intra-Conference Play Starts
The Pac-12 finished strong in non-conference play, surging to a tie with the SEC last week before going into conference play this week. The only game that could change the +10 ranking would be if Colorado did not destroy Nicholls State.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Pac 12 +10 | -3 | 40% | 8:00pm ET | UCLA | Pac 12 +10 |
| Arizona St | Pac 12 +10 | -2 | 47% | 10:30pm ET | USC | Pac 12 +10 |
| California | Pac 12 +10 | -5 | 37% | 5:00pm ET | Washington | Pac 12 +10 |
| Colorado | Pac 12 +10 | 49 | 100% | 1:30pm ET | Nicholls St | FCS |
| Oregon | Pac 12 +10 | 13 | 80% | 8:30pm ET | Utah | Pac 12 +10 |
| Oregon St | Pac 12 +10 | -17 | 13% | Fri 09.25 | Stanford | Pac 12 +10 |
| Stanford | Pac 12 +10 | 17 | 87% | Fri 09.25 | Oregon St | Pac 12 +10 |
| UCLA | Pac 12 +10 | 3 | 60% | 8:00pm ET | Arizona | Pac 12 +10 |
| USC | Pac 12 +10 | 2 | 53% | 10:30pm ET | Arizona St | Pac 12 +10 |
| Utah | Pac 12 +10 | -13 | 20% | 8:30pm ET | Oregon | Pac 12 +10 |
| Washington | Pac 12 +10 | 5 | 63% | 5:00pm ET | California | Pac 12 +10 |
| Washington St | Pac 12 +10 | 0% | Idle | |||
| 6-5, +49 Points | 49 | 6.0 | Pac-12 Proj |
SEC Stuck in 2nd Place Unless Big 12 Falters
For the second straight season, the SEC started a touchdown better than any other conference but faltered on the field of play. No big inter-conference games remain to enable them to catch the Big 12.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC +10 | 31 | 99% | 4:00pm ET | ULM | SunB -14 |
| Arkansas | SEC +10 | -6 | 35% | 7:00pm ET | Texas A&M | SEC +10 |
| Auburn | SEC +10 | 2 | 53% | 7:30pm ET | Mississippi St | SEC +10 |
| Florida | SEC +10 | 1 | 52% | 3:30pm ET | Tennessee | SEC +10 |
| Georgia | SEC +10 | 53 | 100% | 12:00pm ET | Southern Univ | FCS |
| Kentucky | SEC +10 | -5 | 37% | 7:30pm ET | Missouri | SEC +10 |
| LSU | SEC +10 | 18 | 89% | 12:00pm ET | Syracuse | ACC +8 |
| Mississippi | SEC +10 | 28 | 97% | 7:00pm ET | Vanderbilt | SEC +10 |
| Mississippi St | SEC +10 | -2 | 47% | 7:30pm ET | Auburn | SEC +10 |
| Missouri | SEC +10 | 5 | 63% | 7:30pm ET | Kentucky | SEC +10 |
| South Carolina | SEC +10 | 7 | 65% | 12:00pm ET | UCF | Amer +0 |
| Tennessee | SEC +10 | -1 | 48% | 3:30pm ET | Florida | SEC +10 |
| Texas A&M | SEC +10 | 6 | 65% | 7:00pm ET | Arkansas | SEC +10 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC +10 | -28 | 3% | 7:00pm ET | Mississippi | SEC +10 |
| 8.5-5.5, +109 points | 109 | 8.5 | SEC Proj |
Sun Belt Hopes for 2 Big Upsets
No Sun Belt games look even. Each team is either favored by at least eight or underdogs by at least 11. If Arkansas State or South Alabama (both 11 point underdogs) could pull an upset the conference might catch the struggling Mountain West for 9th place.
| Team | Conference | Adj | Pwin | Time | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appalachian St | SunB -14 | 8 | 73% | 3:30pm ET | Old Dominion | CUSA – 8 |
| Arkansas St | SunB -14 | -11 | 25% | 7:00pm ET | Toledo | Mid-Am -6 |
| Ga Southern | SunB -14 | 18 | 89% | 9:00pm ET | Idaho | SunB -14 |
| Georgia St | SunB -14 | 0% | Idle | |||
| Idaho | SunB -14 | -18 | 11% | 9:00pm ET | Ga Southern | SunB -14 |
| New Mexico St | SunB -14 | 0% | Idle | |||
| South Alabama | SunB -14 | -11 | 23% | 8:00pm ET | NC State | ACC +8 |
| Texas St | SunB -14 | -17 | 16% | 8:00pm ET | Houston | Amer +0 |
| Troy | SunB -14 | 0% | Idle | |||
| ULL | SunB -14 | 10 | 73% | 7:00pm ET | Akron | Mid-Am -6 |
| ULM | SunB -14 | -31 | 1% | 4:00pm ET | Alabama | SEC +10 |
| 3-4, -52 points | (52) | 3.1 | SunB Proj |
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