The CBS emblem during SEC games includes the words, “The Best Conference.” But the SEC lacks the edge crucial in final decision on college playoff invites.
Early last year the SEC ranked a touchdown better than every conference and talk centered on two or even three teams receiving invites. But it became acceptable to pick Ohio State after the SEC faltered and the Big Ten closed the gap (see Indiana’s win at Missouri).
Teams are graded from an “A” for performances that help their conference’s rating dramatically to “F” for a performance that hurts conference credibility. An “I” by their score means in intra-conference game that does not impact the conference rating.
This year the Big Ten ranks fourth and not far behind any conference, but the conference did not do enough to justify two playoff teams. Either No. 1 or No. 2 Michigan State or some other Big Ten team will make it but not both. The Big 12 is the top conference, and in an eight-team playoff they would be the one to deserve two teams in Baylor and TCU.
This is the last week with the big scoreboard in the final week of the conferences jockeying for position in games crucial to resumes of potential playoff teams.
ACC drops one to +7, 5th best conference
Indiana led the Big Ten past the ACC with a win over Wake Forest coupled with Boise State’s humiliation of Virginia and East Carolina beating Virginia Tech. At this stage, an ACC champ must go undefeated to have a chance to emerge from the fifth best conference and grab a playoff spot, but a Clemson win over Notre Dame next week would give the conference a better shot.
| ACC | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 3 | 57% | 17-14 C | N Illinois | Mid-Am -6 |
| Clemson | 0% | Idle | |||
| Duke | -7 | 28% | 34-20 I | Georgia Tech | ACC +8 |
| Florida St | 0% | Idle | |||
| Georgia Tech | 7 | 72% | 20-34 I | Duke | ACC +8 |
| Louisville | 28 | 97% | 45-3 C+ | Samford | Big Ten +8 |
| Miami FL | 0% | Idle | |||
| NC State | 11 | 77% | 63-13 A | South Alabama | SunB -14 |
| North Carolina | 31 | 99% | 41-14 C | Delaware | FCS |
| Pittsburgh | 0% | Idle | |||
| Syracuse | -18 | 11% | 24-34 C+ | LSU | SEC +10 |
| Virginia | 0 | 50% | 14-56 F- | Boise St | Mt West -13 |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 60% | 28-35 D | East Carolina | Amer +0 |
| Wake Forest | -3 | 43% | 24-31 D | Indiana | Big Ten +8 |
| 6-4, +55 points | 55 | 5.9 | ACC Proj |
American stays +0, 6th best conference
East Carolina’s second straight win over Virginia Tech of the ACC was enough for the American to hold onto a strong +0 as easily the best Group of 5 conference and only a touchdown worse than the ACC overall. This gives the eventual champ a great shot to be the one team from the Group of 5 conferences to get a major bowl bid, and a separate post makes the case that an undefeated Memphis or Temple actually would deserve a playoff spot.
| American | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | -8 | 33% | 46-53 I | Memphis | Amer +0 |
| Connecticut | -11 | 23% | 18-28 I | Navy | Amer +0 |
| East Carolina | -3 | 40% | 35-28 B | Virginia Tech | ACC +8 |
| Houston | 17 | 84% | 59-14 B | Texas St | SunB -14 |
| Memphis | 8 | 67% | 53-46 I | Cincinnati | Amer +0 |
| Navy | 11 | 77% | 28-18 I | Connecticut | Amer +0 |
| SMU | 9 | 68% | 45-48 D- | James Madison | FCS |
| South Florida | 0% | Idle | |||
| Temple | 0% | Idle | |||
| Tulane | 0% | Idle | |||
| Tulsa | 0% | Idle | |||
| UCF | -7 | 35% | 14-31 C- | South Carolina | SEC +10 |
| 4-4, +16 points | 16 | 4.3 | Amer Proj |
Big 12 stays +11, Best Conference
In the only inter-conference game West Virginia destroyed Maryland to keep the Big 12 as the No. 1 Conference in the final week for most conferences to prove themselves before conference play.
| Big 12 | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 28 | 97% | 70-17 B | Rice | CUSA – 8 |
| Iowa St | 0% | Idle | |||
| Kansas | -4 | 40% | 14-27 C- | Rutgers | Big Ten +8 |
| Kansas St | 0% | Idle | |||
| Oklahoma | 0% | Idle | |||
| Oklahoma St | 1 | 51% | 30-27 I | Texas | Big 12 +11 |
| TCU | 10 | 78% | 53-48 I | Texas Tech | Big 12 +11 |
| Texas | -1 | 49% | 27-30 I | Oklahoma St | Big 12 +11 |
| Texas Tech | -10 | 22% | 48-53 I | TCU | Big 12 +11 |
| West Virginia | 16 | 82% | 45-6 B | Maryland | Big Ten +8 |
| 4-3, +40 points | 40 | 4.2 | Big 12 Proj |
Big Ten improves one to +8, 4th best conference
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Nebraska survived scares from non-Power 5 teams, but they won all three and Michigan thrashing BYU and Indiana beating Wake Forest of the ACC helped them nudge ahead of the ACC by a point for 4th place.
| Big Ten | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 12 | 76% | 27-25 C- | MTSU | CUSA – 8 |
| Indiana | 3 | 57% | 31-24 B | Wake Forest | ACC +8 |
| Iowa | 31 | 99% | 62-16 C+ | North Texas | CUSA – 8 |
| Maryland | -16 | 18% | 6-45 D | West Virginia | Big 12 +11 |
| Michigan | -2 | 47% | 31-0 A | BYU | ind +0 |
| Michigan St | 25 | 95% | 30-10 C | C Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 68% | 27-24 C- | Ohio | Mid-Am -6 |
| Nebraska | 27 | 96% | 36-28 D | Southern Miss | CUSA – 8 |
| Northwestern | 21 | 94% | 24-19 C- | Ball St | Mid-Am -6 |
| Ohio St | 28 | 97% | 38-12 C | W Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| Penn St | 17 | 87% | 37-21 C | San Diego St | Mt West -13 |
| Purdue | -2 | 47% | 28-35 C- | Bowling Green | Mid-Am -6 |
| Rutgers | 4 | 60% | 27-14 C+ | Kansas | Big 12 +11 |
| Wisconsin | 30 | 98% | 28-0 C | Hawaii | Mt West -13 |
| 10-4, +187 points | 187 | 10.4 | Indiana road huge |
Conference USA drops one to -9, 8th best conference
No disasters, but Marshall and UTEP barely pulled out wins and Rice and Old Dominion were destroyed by a combined 139-17.
| CUSA | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | -6 | 33% | 7-17 I | FL Atlantic | CUSA – 8 |
| FL Atlantic | 6 | 67% | 17-7 I | Charlotte | CUSA – 8 |
| Florida Intl | -18 | 12% | 17-27 I | Louisiana Tech | CUSA – 8 |
| Louisiana Tech | 18 | 88% | 27-17 I | Florida Intl | CUSA – 8 |
| Marshall | 9 | 75% | 36-29 OT D | Kent | Mid-Am -6 |
| MTSU | -12 | 24% | 25-27 C+ | Illinois | Big Ten +8 |
| North Texas | -31 | 1% | 16-62 C- | Iowa | Big Ten +8 |
| Old Dominion | -8 | 27% | 0-49 D | Appalachian St | SunB -14 |
| Rice | -28 | 3% | 17-70 D | Baylor | Big 12 +11 |
| Southern Miss | -27 | 4% | 28-36 B | Nebraska | Big Ten +8 |
| UT San Antonio | -7 | 31% | 31-33 C+ | Colorado St | Mt West -13 |
| UTEP | 31 | 99% | 27-17 D | Incarnate Word | FCS |
| W Kentucky | 9 | 68% | 56-14 B | Miami OH | Mid-Am -6 |
| 5-8, -64 points | (64) | 5.3 | CUSA Proj |
Independents and FCS teams playing FBS
| Ind. And FCS | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | 1 | 52% | 58-36 B | E Michigan | Mid-Am -6 |
| BYU | 2 | 53% | 0-31 F | Michigan | Big Ten +8 |
| Delaware | -31 | 1% | 14-41 C | North Carolina | ACC +8 |
| Idaho St | 0 | 50% | 8-80 F | UNLV | Mt West -13 |
| Incarnate Word | -31 | 1% | 17-27 B | UTEP | CUSA – 8 |
| James Madison | -9 | 32% | 48-45 B+ | SMU | Amer +0 |
| Nicholls St | -49 | 0% | 0-48 C | Colorado | Pac 12 +10 |
| Notre Dame | 29 | 98% | 62-27 C | Massachusetts | Mid-Am -6 |
| Samford | -28 | 3% | 3-42 C- | Louisville | ACC +8 |
| Southern Univ | -53 | 0% | 6-48 C | Georgia | SEC +10 |
Mid-American stays at -6, 7th ranked conference
| Mid-American | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | -10 | 27% | 35-14 A | ULL | SunB -14 |
| Ball St | -21 | 6% | 19-24 C+ | Northwestern | Big Ten +8 |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 53% | 35-28 C+ | Purdue | Big Ten +8 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 67% | 21-24 D | Nevada | Mt West -13 |
| C Michigan | -25 | 5% | 10-30 C | Michigan St | Big Ten +8 |
| E Michigan | -1 | 48% | 36-58 D | Army | ind +0 |
| Kent | -9 | 25% | 29-36 OT D | Marshall | CUSA – 8 |
| Massachusetts | -29 | 2% | 27-62 C | Notre Dame | Ind +0 |
| Miami OH | -9 | 32% | 14-56 D | W Kentucky | CUSA – 8 |
| N Illinois | -3 | 43% | 14-17 C | Boston College | ACC +8 |
| Ohio | -9 | 32% | 24-27 C+ | Minnesota | Big Ten +8 |
| Toledo | 11 | 75% | 37-7 B | Arkansas St | SunB -14 |
| W Michigan | -28 | 3% | 12-38 C | Ohio St | Big Ten +8 |
| 4-9, -123 Points | (123) | 4.2 | Mid-Am Proj |
Mountain West improves THREE to -10, 9th best conference
After two dreadful weeks with only three total wins, the conference erupted. Boise State looked like a contender for the non-Power 5 spot with a 56-14 blowout of Virginia in a toss-up game. Nevada pulled off a big win over the Mid-American Buffao, and UNLV destroyed an Idaho State team that is actually very good.
| Mt. West | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 0% | Idle | |||
| Boise St | 0 | 50% | 56-14 A+ | Virginia | ACC +8 |
| Colorado St | 7 | 69% | 33-31 C- | UT San Antonio | CUSA – 8 |
| Fresno St | 1 | 52% | 23-49 I | San Jose St | Mt West -13 |
| Hawaii | -30 | 2% | 0-28 C | Wisconsin | Big Ten +8 |
| Nevada | -8 | 33% | 24-21 B | Buffalo | Mid-Am -6 |
| New Mexico | 3 | 58% | 38-28 I | Wyoming | Mt West -13 |
| San Diego St | -17 | 13% | 21-37 C | Penn St | Big Ten +8 |
| San Jose St | -1 | 48% | 49-23 I | Fresno St | Mt West -13 |
| UNLV | 0 | 50% | 80-8 A | Idaho St | FCS |
| Utah St | 0% | Idle | |||
| Wyoming | -3 | 42% | 28-38 I | New Mexico | Mt West -13 |
| 4-6, -48 Points | (48) | 4.2 | Mt West Proj |
Pac-12 stays at +10, tied for 2nd best conference
The Pac-12 starts conference play a week earlier than the others, and the only non-conference was almost exactly as expected. We had Colorado as a 49-point favorite over Nicholls State and they won 48-0. Our preseason pick of UCLA as the surprise conference champion looked good after Saturday, and we have them as the fourth team in the playoffs.
| Pac 12 | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | -3 | 40% | 30-56 I | UCLA | Pac 12 +10 |
| Arizona St | -2 | 47% | 14-42 I | USC | Pac 12 +10 |
| California | -5 | 37% | 30-24 I | Washington | Pac 12 +10 |
| Colorado | 49 | 100% | 48-0 C | Nicholls St | FCS |
| Oregon | 13 | 80% | 20-62 I | Utah | Pac 12 +10 |
| Oregon St | -17 | 13% | 24-42 I | Stanford | Pac 12 +10 |
| Stanford | 17 | 87% | 42-24 I | Oregon St | Pac 12 +10 |
| UCLA | 3 | 60% | 56-30 I | Arizona | Pac 12 +10 |
| USC | 2 | 53% | 42-14 I | Arizona St | Pac 12 +10 |
| Utah | -13 | 20% | 62-20 I | Oregon | Pac 12 +10 |
| Washington | 5 | 63% | 24-30 I | California | Pac 12 +10 |
| Washington St | 0% | Idle | |||
| 6-5, +49 Points | 49 | 6.0 | Pac-12 Proj |
SEC stays at +10, tied for 2nd best conference
The SEC may end up as the top conference, but they did not outperform the Big 12 or Pac-12 in early inter-conference games. If LSU and Mississippi posses the best shot at the national title, consider that LSU struggled to beat Syracuse and Mississippi struggled to beat a Vanderbilt team that SEC fans assured me was a doormat when they lost their opener to a non-Power 5 team.
| SEC | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 31 | 99% | 34-0 C | ULM | SunB -14 |
| Arkansas | -6 | 35% | 21-28 OT I | Texas A&M | SEC +10 |
| Auburn | 2 | 53% | 9-17 I | Mississippi St | SEC +10 |
| Florida | 1 | 52% | 28-27 I | Tennessee | SEC +10 |
| Georgia | 53 | 100% | 48-6 C | Southern Univ | FCS |
| Kentucky | -5 | 37% | 21-13 I | Missouri | SEC +10 |
| LSU | 18 | 89% | 34-24 C- | Syracuse | ACC +8 |
| Mississippi | 28 | 97% | 27-16 I | Vanderbilt | SEC +10 |
| Mississippi St | -2 | 47% | 17-9 I | Auburn | SEC +10 |
| Missouri | 5 | 63% | 13-21 I | Kentucky | SEC +10 |
| South Carolina | 7 | 65% | 31-14 C+ | UCF | Amer +0 |
| Tennessee | -1 | 48% | 27-28 I | Florida | SEC +10 |
| Texas A&M | 6 | 65% | 28-21 OT I | Arkansas | SEC +10 |
| Vanderbilt | -28 | 3% | 16-27 I | Mississippi | SEC +10 |
| 8.5-5.5, +109 points | 109 | 8.5 | SEC Proj |
Sun Belt drops three to -17 to be worst of 10 conferences
The Sun Belt fell so far behind all other conferences this weekend, they could be left out of a tournament of the Group of 5 to determine a college playoff team – as outlined in another post. Arkansas State, South Alabama and Texas State embarrassed the conference this past week.
| Sun Belt | Pred | Pwin | Score/Conf Grade | Opponent | Opp Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appalachian St | 8 | 73% | 49-0 B | Old Dominion | CUSA – 8 |
| Arkansas St | -11 | 25% | 7-37 D | Toledo | Mid-Am -6 |
| Ga Southern | 18 | 89% | 44-20 I | Idaho | SunB -14 |
| Georgia St | 0% | Idle | |||
| Idaho | -18 | 11% | 20-44 I | Ga Southern | SunB -14 |
| New Mexico St | 0% | Idle | |||
| South Alabama | -11 | 23% | 13-63 F | NC State | ACC +8 |
| Texas St | -17 | 16% | 14-59 D | Houston | Amer +0 |
| Troy | 0% | Idle | |||
| ULL | 10 | 73% | 14-35 F | Akron | Mid-Am -6 |
| ULM | -31 | 1% | 0-34 C | Alabama | SEC +10 |
| 3-4, -52 points | (52) | 3.1 | SunB Proj |
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