Poll: Trump Tied with Biden Nationally, Dominates Republican Primary

TOPSHOT - (COMBO) This combination of pictures created on September 29, 2020 shows US Pres
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Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump is dominating the 2024 Republican primary race and is tied with President Joe Biden nationally in a head-to-head matchup, September’s Emerson College poll found.

Trump experienced a nine-point jump since the latest poll taken in late August, moving from 50 percent support in the GOP primary to 59 percent. His closest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has failed to make any gains in that same time period, remaining consistent with just 12 percent support. Still, that reflects a nine-point drop from the 21 percent the presidential hopeful saw in June. At that time, Trump still garnered 59 percent support in the primary.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 20: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks to police officers about protecting law and order at Prive catering hall on February 20, 2023 in the Staten Island borough of New York City. DeSantis, a Republican, is expected by many to announce his candidacy for president in the coming weeks or months. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks to police officers about protecting law and order at Prive catering hall on February 20, 2023, in the Staten Island borough of New York City (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images).

Anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy comes in third place with seven percent support, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence with five percent support and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with three percent support.

Further, most Republican primary voters, 63 percent, said they will “definitely” support their candidate of choice. More than one-third, 36 percent, said they could change their minds beforehand. Trump voters are particularly confident, as three-quarters said they will definitely support the former president. Less than half of DeSantis supporters, 42 percent, said they will definitely support him.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “The Trump voter remains resilient, and despite a dip in August’s post-debate poll, Trump has now expanded his lead and has improved his position from before the first debate.”

The survey also put Trump and Biden in a head-to-head match and found them tied with 45 percent support each. Trump edges Biden out by one point, however, when Green Party candidate Cornel West is thrown into the mix, showcasing the fears of many Democrats, who are concerned West’s bid will only derail Biden and help Trump.

President Joe Biden, Professor Cornel West, and former President Donald Trump (Samuel Corum/Sipa/Bloomberg, Frederick M. Brown, Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images)

The survey was taken September 17-18, 2024, among 1,125 registered voters. It has a +/- 2.8 percent margin of error and coincides with several other surveys, showing Trump both dominating the Republican primary race and tying with or edging out Biden in a rematch.

This week’s Morning Consult poll, for example, found Trump leading the GOP field by double digits as well as tying Biden with 42 percent support each:

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