Poll: Donald Trump Trounces Joe Biden in 7 Swing States Heading into Election Year

trump leads biden
Mandel NGAN / AFP, Win McNamee/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump has the edge over President Joe Biden in seven crucial swing states in hypothetical match-ups with the 2024 general election less than a year away, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. 

The poll, released on Thursday, shows Trump leading Biden in head-to-head races and in deeper fields in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, some of the advantages are within the margin of error.

Trump won six of these seven states in 2016, propelling him to the White House over Democrat Hillary Clinton, but in 2020, Biden carried six of these states in his victory over Trump. These states will decide the 2024 election, and Trump’s early strength in them is cause for concern for Democrats and Biden, whose approval rating registers at historic lows in other recent polling. 

Biden “is making no gains among groups he is going to need to pull off a victory next year,” Morning Consult Politics Analyst Eli Yokley told Bloomberg.

In looking at individual states in the Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll, Trump has a 46 percent to 42 percent lead over Biden among 796 registered voters in a hypothetical two-man race in Arizona. Five percent will not vote in the election, and seven percent are unsure who they will back in a hypothetical head-to-head race. The four-point lead exceeds the ± three percent margin of error (MOE). 

When the field widens to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s lead over Biden drops by one point. The 45th president leads the pack with 40 percent, followed by Biden at 37 percent and Kennedy at ten percent. From there, West and Stein each tie at one percent. 

Trump won Arizona over Clinton in 2016, and it narrowly broke for Biden in 2020. 

In Georgia, nearly half of all 801 respondents, 49 percent, back Trump in a head-to-head race with Biden, who draws 43 percent of support. The six-point lead eclipses the ± three percent MOE, while four percent will abstain from voting, and five percent are undecided. 

Unlike Arizona, Trump’s lead grows with Kennedy, West, and Stein in the mix. In that scenario, he is the front-runner with 44 percent of support, giving him a seven-point advantage over Biden at 37 percent. Kennedy garners six percent of support, West takes two percent, and Stein rounds out the field with one percent. 

Georgia went red for Trump in 2016, but Biden took the state by 48.47 percent to 48.24 percent in the last presidential election. 

Biden also lags behind Trump in Michigan, which he won in 2020 but Trump carried in 2016. Trump holds the support of 46 percent of the 703 registered voters surveyed, placing him four points ahead of Biden at 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up. This falls within the ± four-point MOE. Six percent will refuse to vote, and six percent are undecided. 

The margin between Trump and Biden is unchanged in the more crowded field. The 45th president has 39 percent of backing to Biden’s 35 percent. Kennedy garners ten percent, while West and Stein receive two percent and one percent of the response. 

A Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll from November showed Biden trailing Trump in every one of these swing states, spare Michigan, where they tied in a head-to-head race, and Biden narrowly led in a deeper field. Stein was not included in that poll, as it was conducted before her launch. 

In Nevada, which went blue in 2016 and 2020, Trump enjoys a three-point edge that falls within the ± five percent MOE in a two-man race with Biden. The 45th president scores 47 percent of the 451 respondents, while 44 percent support Biden. Another five percent will sit out the election, and four percent are undecided. 

The larger field benefits Trump in the Silver State as his advantage over Biden expands to five points. Trump draws 42 percent, Biden takes 37 percent, and Kennedy garners 11 percent in this scenario. Two percent of respondents back West, and one percent support Stein. 

Trump’s best showing in this comprehensive survey came in North Carolina — a state he won the last two election cycles. He leads Biden by a margin of 49 percent to 40 percent, as six percent will not cast a ballot, and five percent are unsure who they will support. This is well outside the ± four percent MOE in the Tar Heel State. 

The 45th president’s advantage climbs to double digits when the field expands, as 45 percent of the 704 registered voters break for Trump, and 34 percent get behind Biden. Kennedy garners eight percent, while West and Stein land one percent each. 

Pennsylvania — which Trump carried in 2016 and Biden won in 2020 — shows the closest contests among the seven states. Biden takes 44 percent in a head-to-head race with Trump, whom 46 percent of the 799 respondents support. Ten percent will either not vote in the election or are undecided. The two-point lead falls within the ± three percent MOE. 

The margin between Biden and Trump narrows to one point in a five-way race in the Keystone State, though Trump still leads with 39 percent. After Biden at 38 percent, Kennedy sits in third place with nine percent, while one percent back Stein and one percent back West. 

Finally, 45 percent of the 681 respondents in Wisconsin support Trump, and 41 percent support Biden. Eight percent will not vote if these are their options, and six percent do not have opinions either way. The four-point lead for Trump falls within the four-point MOE.

In contrast to Pennsylvania, Kennedy, Stein, and West help Trump in Wisconsin, according to this poll. With them in the race,  Trump’s lead over Biden grows to six points, at 40 percent to 34 percent. Kennedy carries ten percent of the response, while West takes one percent and three percent back Stein. Wisconsin is another state that went red in 2016 and blue in 2020. 

All samples were collected from November 27-December 6, 2023. 

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