Embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson, who will face a historic vote next week in the House of Representatives to remove his gavel and strip him of the Speakership, is plummeting among Republicans and supporters of former President Donald Trump and surging among Democrats and supporters of Democrat President Joe Biden.
When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) calls the privileged resolution on a motion to vacate Johnson from the Speakership, Democrats intend to vote to save Johnson’s job by voting for the motion to table Greene’s resolution. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House who has essentially seized control of the chamber from Johnson as evidenced by Democrats carrying the rule vote on the foreign aid package earlier in April, has made it clear he intends to make sure Democrats protect Johnson. But many might be asking why Democrats, who voted en masse to strip now former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of his gavel last October, would throw such a lifeline to Johnson and save him.
Polls over the last few weeks from the Economist and YouGov capture the story: Johnson is surging with Democrats, and collapsing with Republicans. Johnson has seen in just the past two weeks alone double digit swings towards him among Democrats and away from him among Republicans.
Three consecutive surveys from the Economist/YouGov show the trend. Back in mid-April, before Johnson handed operational control of the House chamber to Democrats with the foreign aid package that sends billions of American tax dollars to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, Johnson’s overall favorability rating was already net underwater with 26 percent overall approving of his job performance and 35 percent disapproving. Thirty-nine percent in this survey conducted from April 14 to April 16 did not know what they thought of Johnson.
But when looking at the demographic breakdown of answers to this question, the divide in mid-April was stark when it comes to Trump versus Biden voters and Republicans versus Democrats. Among Trump voters back then, Johnson’s approval was at 50 percent and his disapproval at 18 percent, while 32 percent did not know. Among Republicans, Johnson was at 44 percent approval, 22 percent disapproval, and 34 percent uncertain. Among Biden voters, Johnson’s approval was 12 percent and disapproval was 61 percent, while 27 percent did not know. Among Democrats, Johnson’s approval was 14 percent and disapproval was 52 percent, while 34 percent did not know.
Fast forward just a week later, in the middle of Johnson’s betrayal of his previous promise not to pass Ukraine aid without actual border security here in the United States, and the numbers completely flipped on Johnson. The next Economist/YouGov poll, taken April 21 to April 23, shows a 31 percent approval for Johnson among the overall sample—a 6 percent increase—and a 42 percent overall disapproval, a 7 percent increase, while 27 percent did not know. So what accounts for the week-over-week drastic changes in Johnson’s numbers? The answer is a combination of a massive drop among Republicans and Trump supporters, and a similarly huge surge among Democrats rushing to his defense.
In this new poll, among Trump supporters, Johnson dropped from 50 percent approval to 47 percent approval and he rose from 18 percent disapproval to 27 percent disapproval—a net 12-point swing in one week. Among Republicans overall, Johnson did tick up two points on the approval rating from 44 to 46 percent week-over-week—seeming to suggest that establishment Republicans are rushing to his side as Trump supporters leave him in droves—and remained the same at 22 percent disapproval. But among Democrats, Johnson improved by a net 8 points—his approval was still just 14 percent there but his disapproval dropped from 61 percent down to 53 percent. That’s a massive improvement for the leader of the supposedly opposite party in one week. Then, among Biden voters, Johnson improved a net four points in that one week. His approval there surged from 12 percent to 16 percent and his disapproval remained stagnant at 61 percent.
This trend continued for another week into late last week and even this week as well. The next weekly survey from Economist/YouGov, conducted from April 28 to April 30, showed an even bigger acceleration of the trend. Now, just a week on from his betrayal on Ukraine aid, his approval rating has dropped back down to 26 percent—a complete erasure of any gains he made by selling out—while his disapproval rating overall has also dropped back down among the general sample to 37 percent. While that’s net neutral from the immediate aftermath of the foreign aid package passing, that’s 2 percent worse overall from two weeks ago. But again, the deep demographic shifts among Johnson’s support and disapproval continue and accelerate here.
Among Trump supporters, Johnson is now down to just 41 percent approval and up to 31 percent disapproval—another double digit swing against him from one week ago and a net 21 percent swing against Johnson in two weeks. That is a brutal drop in support that is real and measurable and basically unheard of that quickly. Among Republicans, too, whatever establishment sugar high he had post-foreign aid package passing has totally faded. In this latest survey, Johnson’s approval numbers dropped off down to 39 and his disapproval surged up to 27 percent, which represents a 12-percent swing against Johnson among Republicans in one week.
Johnson’s coalition now seems to be totally shifting to Democrats away from Republicans, too, as this latest survey shows he now enjoys the support of 18 percent of Democrats while just 51 percent of Democrats disapprove of him. Week-over-week that’s another net 6 percent swing towards Johnson among Democrats, and from two weeks ago that’s a 14-percent swing towards Johnson among Democrats.
He also improved for a second straight week among Biden voters, a second week of a 4-percent net swing Johnson’s way among supporters of the Democrat president and an overall 8-percent swing Johnson’s way among Biden voters during this past two weeks. His approval among Biden voters remains at 16 percent, the same as last week, and his disapproval has dropped four points to 57 percent.
These rapid realigning political forces—where Democrats and Biden supporters are rushing to Johnson’s side, and Trump supporters and Republicans are dropping Johnson like a bad habit—stand in contrast to what Republicans and Trump supporters think of Greene, the congresswoman leading the push to oust Johnson. During this timeframe, Greene’s approval among Republicans remained at 39 percent, but her disapproval among Republicans from the first survey to the third one—Greene was not polled in the second survey—actually dropped from 27 percent to just 20 percent, a net positive 7-percent swing Greene’s way among Republicans in the past two weeks.
Among Trump supporters, too, Greene has seen a positive swing her way. She began this set of surveys at 47 percent approval among Trump supporters and remains there, while her disapproval has dropped two points from 25 percent to 23 percent.
Asked for a reaction to his boss’s plummeting poll numbers among Republicans and Trump supporters—and surging numbers among Democrats and Biden supporters—Johnson spokesman Raj Shah told Breitbart News to “show me the polls.” When Breitbart News told him the exact polls listed above, he did not answer other than to say in response to a question about whether Johnson adores his newfound Democrat support that he referred Breitbart news to a press conference Johnson gave on Tuesday. In the press conference to which Shah referred, Johnson did not address the Trump supporters and Republicans nationwide leaving him in droves or the Democrats rushing to his side across the country–only the Democrats in Congress backing him.
It’s the “first I’ve heard of it,” Johnson said at the press conference when asked about Jeffries’ announcement that Democrats would vote to protect Johnson. He went on:
Look, I have to do my job. We have to do what we believe to be the right thing. What the country needs right now is a functioning Congress. They need a Congress that works well, works together and does not hamper its own ability to solve these problems. So, we saw what happened with a motion to vacate the last time. Congress was closed for three weeks. No one can afford for that to happen. So we need people who are serious about the job here to continue to do that job and get it done. So I have to do what I believe is right every day and let the chips fall where they may.
When asked in a followup if he is comfortable continuing to serve as Speaker only because Democrats support him remaining in the job and allow him to continue in it because he does not have the requisite support among Republicans, Johnson replied: “The Speaker of the House serves the whole body.”
“I am a conservative Republican, a lifelong conservative Republican,” Johnson added while grinning before looking down and to his right. “That’s what my philosophy is, that’s what my record is. We’ll continue to govern on those principles. You hope you have the support of everyone–the entire country. But like I said, I’ve got to continue to do my job and continue to keep my head down. This is a very serious time for the country. We’re not playing games here. The world is on fire because of all of the things we talked about today. We shouldn’t be playing politics and engaged in the chaos that, uh, looks like palace intrigue here. We need to be doing the job that the framers intended for Congress to play, and that’s what I’m about, and I’ll continue to pursue that every day. We’ll keep the wheels of government functioning.”