A majority of swing state voters said there is “not really any chance” they would cast a vote for President Joe Biden, a New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll recently found, underscoring Biden’s tough road to reelection.
The poll asked respondents, “Would you say there’s some chance you will support Joe Biden or not really any chance?”
- 52 percent said not really any chance
- Four percent said some chance
- Two percent did not know
Among the 52 percent who said there was no chance they would vote for Biden, nine percent voted for Biden in 2020, and seven percent considered themselves Democrats.
The findings suggest Biden lost a significant portion of his support in 2020. That data bears itself out in swing state polling, where former President Donald Trump leads in five of the six swing states:
- Arizona: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), 49%-43% (likely voters)
- Georgia: Trump 49%-39% (registered voters), 50%-41% (likely voters)
- Michigan: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), Biden 47%-46% (likely voters)
- Nevada: Trump 50%-38% (registered voters), 51%-38% (likely voters)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47%-44% (registered voters), 48%-45% (likely voters)
- Wisconsin: Biden 47%-45% (registered voters), Trump 47%-46% (likely voters)
“The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent,” Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst, reported. “Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing.”
“Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020,” Cohn continued. “Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”
The poll sampled 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9, 2024. The margin of error ranges from 3.6 points (Pennsylvania) to 4.6 points (Georgia) and joined together at 1.8 points.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.