Former President Donald Trump has the edge over President Joe Biden nationally in both a deep field and a two-way race as Biden faces enthusiasm problems, according to an Emerson College poll.
The poll, published Friday, shows 44 percent of the 1,100 registered voter respondents back Trump in a race with Biden and third-party candidates. He sits 5 points ahead of Biden at 39 percent, while Independent Robert F. Kennedy registers at 6 percent. The Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West tie at one percent. Ten percent of respondents are undecided.
Trump’s lead falls outside the ± 2.9 percent margin of error.
The margin between Trump and Biden tightens in a race exclusively between them. Trump garners 46 percent of the response to Biden’s 44 percent. Another ten percent of respondents are undecided in this scenario.
When undecided voters are pressed to pick a candidate they lean toward, they break for Biden 59 percent to 41 percent. The overall race becomes a dead heat with leaners included in the full sample as Biden and Trump tie at 50 percent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release that Biden is winning voters under 30, but Trump is winning voters in their 30s.
“Voters under 30 break for Biden by 15 points, with a quarter undecided. When these undecideds are pushed, the group breaks for Biden by 26 points, 63% to 37%, reflective of his margin in 2020 with this group,” Kimball said.
“That said, Biden trails Trump 41% to 45% among voters in their 30s, among whom he led Trump in 2020,” he added. “Trump’s support has grown since 2020 among voters in their 50s according to this poll, leading Biden by 19 points, 57% to 38%.”
The poll also finds Biden faces serious enthusiasm problems with the Democrat base. While 80 percent of Republican primary voters say the GOP should nominate Trump, only 68 percent of Democrats say the party should nominate Biden. Both men have held the “title” presumptive nominee for months.
Roughly a quarter of Democrats (24 percent) want a nominee other than Biden, and 8 percent were unsure. Just 14 percent of Republicans want someone other than Trump as the nominee.
Voters overwhelmingly identified the economy as the top issue facing the nation. Of the respondents, 38 percent selected the economy, while immigration and threats to democracy received the second and third highest response rates, at 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively.