Marco Rubio: China's Nuclear Buildup Makes Any Deal Between Only U.S. and Russia 'Obsolete'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed in an essay published on Friday that the administration of President Donald Trump would not pursue a new nuclear arms reduction agreement with only Russia, arguing that China’s “rapid and opaque” nuclear buildup made such a deal “obsolete.”

Secretary Rubio’s commentary, published on the State Department’s Substack page, follows the expiration of the Obama-era New START treaty on Thursday. That agreement voluntarily limited American and Russian deployments of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with nuclear warheads and other strategic arms. The Russian government pressured the United States to extend the treaty beyond the February 4 deadline despite Vladimir Putin announcing in 2023 that Russia would start ignoring its restrictions unilaterally.

During his first term, Trump repeatedly stated that he did not think that a nuclear weapons restriction agreement would be useful without addressing the Chinese military. According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published in 2024, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a much faster pace than any other country, adding about 100 nuclear warheads a year. Beijing has repeatedly rejected all calls to agree to limits in its nuclear weapons development, claiming it is still a “developing” country not on par with Russia or China.

Secretary Rubio categorically rejected the idea of China as a second-tier nuclear threat in his essay. The secretary proposed the creation of an agreement “that reflects that the United States could soon face not one, but two, nuclear peers in Russia and China.”

“China’s rapid and opaque expansion of its nuclear arsenal since New START entered into force has rendered past models of arms control, based upon bilateral agreements between the United States and Russia, obsolete,” Rubio posited. “Since 2020, China has increased its nuclear weapons stockpile from the low 200s to more than 600 and is on pace to have more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.”

“An arms control arrangement that does not account for China’s build-up, which Russia is supporting, will undoubtedly leave the United States and our allies less safe,” he argued.

The American top diplomat explained that the Trump administration was open to patience and in-depth discussions before coming up with an agreement to replace New START, insisting “that this process can take time” and that previous such agreements required years of difficult negotiations. He insisted, however, that no agreement that harms American interests or would “ignore noncompliance” will be acceptable to Washington.

“Russia and China should not expect the United States to stand still while they shirk their obligations and expand their nuclear forces,” he wrote. “We will maintain a robust, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent. But we will do so while pursuing all avenues to fulfill the President’s genuine desire for a world with fewer of these awful weapons.”

China has steadfastly rejected pressure to agree to limitations on its nuclear arsenal, including this week following the expiration of the New START treaty. In remarks on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian repeated the Communist Party’s claims that committing China to limit its arsenal was unnecessary because Beijing had already imposed a policy on itself of no preemptive use.

“China always exercises utmost prudence and responsibility on issues concerning nuclear weapons,” Lin claimed. “China follows a defensive nuclear strategy and a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons, and pledged unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon-free zones.”

“China keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security, and has no intention to engage in arms race with any country,” he added, claiming that China’s “nuclear strength is by no means at the same level with that of the U.S. or Russia.”

He nonetheless added that the end of New START was “truly regrettable” from the Communist Party’s point of view.

Genocidal Chinese dictator Xi Jinping reportedly discussed New START in a “virtual meeting” with Putin on Wednesday, reportedly scheduled already as a traditional engagement before the Lunar New Year. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not address the topic, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed to reporters the next day that “indeed, this issue was raised.” He did not offer any details of that conversation, only that Xi considered the end of the treaty a negative development.

The Communist Party has historically rejected its inclusion in nuclear arms control. In a sign that it may be slightly reconsidering its resistance, the state-run propaganda outlet Global Times boasted on Thursday that Trump’s call to include China in such a deal marks China’s rising global influence and international flattery toward Beijing.

“All parties including the U.S. and Russia have realized that the constructive settlement of these issues is inseparable from China’s participation and must involve full communication, exchanges, and dialogue with China,” the state outlet claimed, citing a regime-approved “expert.” “This has made China a core and critical connecting point in current international relations, and an important pillar for countries to strengthen their own development and resolve practical challenges.”

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