On Thursday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Source,” Amos Hochstein, who served as Special Presidential Coordinator for Energy Security during the Biden administration, said that “as a result of both the Israeli and the American strikes, the nuclear program was set back significantly. How much? We don’t really know. Most Israeli military analysts and generals that I’ve spoken to over the last 24, 48 hours think this has gone from a six-months breakout timeframe to two years.”
Hochstein said, “Over the last year, year and a quarter, last April, Iran launched a missile attack against Israel, which was 100 ballistic missiles, accompanied by 200 or so UAVs. The United States military coordinated a response and defeated that attack. But that was really the first time that Iran had used its own territory to attack Israel. They did it again in October, and again, the United States supported Israel — and with regional partners, as well as European countries — to defeat it. And now, since then, Iran has lost most of its deterrence power. They had three things going for them. They had proxies — meaning terrorist organizations — in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen that supported them. The second was the missiles. And the third was the threat of a nuclear — a weaponization of their nuclear capabilities. Most of their proxies are either weakened to the point they can’t respond or are choosing now to distance themselves from Iran, their missile capability has been proven to be less effective because of the United States’ ability to defend the region, and now their nuclear capability is likely at least set back.”
He continued, “Now, the whole idea of obliterated or destroyed, these are political terms that are not really relevant. And I would urge Americans not to really pay attention to those words. What we do know, we know that, as a result of both the Israeli and the American strikes, the nuclear program was set back significantly. How much? We don’t really know. Most Israeli military analysts and generals that I’ve spoken to over the last 24, 48 hours think this has gone from a six-months breakout timeframe to two years. So, an 18-month or two-year delay in their program. But here’s the thing: They have also lost other capabilities, they’ve lost their command and control, they’ve lost military leaders, they’ve lost scientists, and they lost their conversion. So, they are clearly weakened. And, lastly, Israel has proven that they have an intelligence capability inside Iran that if they tried to reconstitute, we’ll — we, the United States, Israel, other European allies, we’ll know about it.”
Hochstein added that we still need a deal with Iran and they could try to reconstitute their program and inspectors are needed.
Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett