Applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, though they remain at historically low levels.
Initial claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ended April 18, the Labor Department data said Thursday. The mid-month report of claims is closely watched because it coincides with the survey period for the government’s monthly employment report.
Jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, fell near the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and have remained extremely low throughout the conflict. The four-week moving average of claims now stands at 210,750, lower than it has been 94 percent of the time in records stretching back to 1967.
While the current labor market has been described as a “low hire, low fire” environment, there are increasing signs that employer appetites for expanding payrolls are growing. The weekly hiring measure from ADP Research, part of the ADP payroll processing company, has shown increasing payrolls for five weeks. And the pace of the increase is accelerating. Data released Tuesday, covering the four-week period through April 4, showed private payrolls growing by 54,000 on average over the prior four weeks, up from averages of 40,250 and 20,000 in the two prior weeks. All three weeks set new highs for the year.
“I think you are going to pull into a different labor market dynamic this week, where it’s a low fire, some hire—maybe a strong hire—month in April,” ADP economist Nela Richardson said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Surveillance program on Thursday.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits after their first week of joblessness, rose to 1.82 million in the previous week. The four-week average of continuing claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, stands at 1,812,250, lower than it has been 85 percent of the time since 1967.
Although there are widespread worries about job security, particularly around the effect of AI on jobs, the data show very few Americans are being laid off.