Thursday morning at 5:30a pacific, the Academy Award nominations will be announced. For a movie junkie like me, this is one of the highlights of the year. I have diligently seen every major awards contender and informally surveyed Academy voters in order to divine which five will be nominated in each category, and I’m ready to reveal my predix now.

The Oscars are Hollywood’s biggest night, and it is an event that still moves the pop culture needle. Yes it is a self-congratulatory evening of over-the-top excess with fancy designer dresses, borrowed jewelry, red carpet silliness and self-indulgent speeches, but somehow, this incredibly flawed process, more often than not, honors the right movies and performances.

Let me preempt some of the inevitable complaints.

-The show will be too long.

-About half of the people will love Hugh Jackman as Oscar host and the other half will hate what he does and complain that Billy Crystal isn’t still on the job.

-There will be lame banter between awkwardly matched presenters.

But first come the nominations. Who will hear the name called on Thursday, and who will be left out in the cold? Actors who are nominated, for the rest of their careers, will be described in movie trailers as “Academy Award nominee.” Movies that receive nominations will do brisk business in the run-up to the ceremony. Those films that are snubbed will see their business tail off and their theatrical runs will likely be over before the first Oscar is awarded. These Academy Awards do matter to the industry and, despite some ratings decline, they still hold enormous say with the movie-going public.

Some things to remember.

*The largest voting bloc in the Academy is actors.

*Academy membership skews male and older (which may help guys like Clint Eastwood and Richard Jenkins and help ingenues like Anne Hathaway and Amy Adams).

*Many voters watch potential nominees on DVD screeners, which often helps more intimate character-driven films (like The Visitor, Revolutionary Road and Frozen River).

*There is some unspoken pressure this year to nominate the sorts of movies and performances that may drive viewership of the broadcast (helping movies like The Dark Knight and people like Miley Cyrus).

Keeping in mind the words of Oscar nominated screenwriter William Goldman’s words – “Nobody knows anything” – here are my predicted nominations in all of the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

The Dark Knight


LEFT OUT –

Doubt

Revolutionary Road

WALL-E

The Reader

ANALYSIS: I believe these have been locked in for a while. Slumdog remains the favorite to win and Benjamin Button is admired, if not loved. Sean Penn’s tour de force as Harvey Milk has galvanized solid support. The two softest potential nominees are The Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon. My feeling is that there needs to be room for big movies in the elite Best Picture category. There was a time when a serial killer movie wasn’t considered Oscar bait. Then came Silence of the Lambs. There was a time when Scorsese was handicapped by violence and too many f-bombs. Then came The Departed. The time has come for Hollywood to recognize a blockbuster comic book adaptation, and Nolan has raised the genre to an art form. I am guessing that Frost/Nixon makes the cut, but if Doubt or WALL-E sneak in, the well-regarded Ron Howard-directed historical biopic may miss the cut.

BEST ACTOR

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

LEFT OUT –

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Colin Farrell, In Bruges

ANALYSIS: Ultimately, this is a three-horse race with Golden Globe winner Rourke, Langella and Penn contending for the big prize. The commercial success of Gran Torino has elevated Eastwood to at least a nomination, and Jenkins has wide support among his fellow actors. DiCaprio has been snubbed before (Titanic, Catch Me If You Can), and his co-star Kate Winslet seems to be grabbing the bulk of the accolades. The fundamental problem with Pitt’s performance has nothing to do with his work. The question is, “How much of the performance is makeup, technical wizardry and David Fincher virtuosity, and how much is Pitt the actor?”

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

LEFT OUT –

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

ANALYSIS: It’s Winslet’s year. She has become a heavy favorite to win Best Actress for Revolutionary Road. Despite her annoying double-win acceptance speeches at the Globes (“Gather…”), she remains at the top of the list. This will make Streep’s 15th nomination and Hathaway is a sure-thing. Hawkins’ win at the Globes gave her just the visibility she needed to seal the deal. My hunch is that the final spot will go to either Kristin Scott Thomas or SAG Awards nominee Leo. Thomas was amazing in I’ve Loved You So Long, but she would be the third Brit in the category, which is likely one too many. Plus, Melissa Leo has the sort of career that actors like to recognize, and she has indie cred. Blanchett’s performance in Ben Button has gained no momentum (again, there’s the question of make-up, effects, etc.) and I am not a fan of Jolie’s overwrought, one-note performance in Changeling.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Josh Brolin, Milk

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

LEFT OUT –

Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess

ANALYSIS: With Ledger assured a posthumous win, the honor will be “just being nominated.” There is general agreement that Downey Jr. has had a great year, and deserves a nomination for his unique performance in Tropic Thunder (and for his lead work in Iron Man, among the year’s biggest hits). Brolin is also getting credit for his, in my opinion, overrated work in W.. A wave of Slumdog love will likely carry Patel, who also received a SAG Awards nomination. Actors seem to love Doubt, and they are the largest branch in the Academy, so that is good news for Hoffman. Shannon’s performance is fascinating, but it has just never caught fire, and Marsan, my second-favorite performance of this group, is just a little too obscure a name to crack this field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Amy Adams, Doubt

LEFT OUT –

Frieda Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire

Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

ANALYSIS: Winslet will earn a double nomination (as she did at the Globes), but I believe that Cruz will win in this category on Oscar night. Tomei gets huge points for her gritty, courageous work in The Wrestler, and Viola Davis steals the show with her small role in Doubt. I am one of the few prognosticators who still thinks Amy Adams will hang on for the last nomination. Never underestimate ingénue appeal in this category.

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

LEFT OUT –

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Clint Eastwood, Changeling and Gran Torino

ANALYSIS: The five nominees in this category rarely match the five Best Picture choices, but who to drop? Boyle is the likely winner, and this will be Fincher’s overdue first nomination. In the last nine cycles, Best Director and Best Picture have lined up only once.

Best Director Nominees for films not nominated for Best Picture

2000

Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich

2001

Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot

2002

Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down

David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

2003

Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her

2004

Fernando Meirelles, City of God

2005

Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

2006

None

2007

Paul Greengrass, United 93

2008

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly

Trends in the nominees that defied the odds? Foreign language movies, the work of true auteurs and pictures too edgy to be mainstream Best Picture nominees. Nolan has delivered the all-time second-biggest blockbuster for the industry, and Van Sant is beloved by actors. I’ll take a shot with Darren Aronofsky, whose singular directorial vision has resurrected Mickey Rourke and created the most visceral movie-going experience of the year. The Wrestler is just too edgy to be a Best Picture nominee. In leaving Ron Howard out, voters know that 1) he already has a Best Director Oscar for A Beautiful Mind, and 2) he is one of the lead producers on Frost/Nixon, so he will not be without a nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Andrew Stanton, WALL-E

Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky

Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler

LEFT OUT –

Joel and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading

Nick Schenk, Gran Torino

Tom McCarthy, The Visitor



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road

LEFT OUT –

David Hare, The Reader

Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

BEST EDITING

Frost/Nixon

The Dark Knight

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Chris Menges, Roger Deakins, The Reader

Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road

BEST ART DIRECTION

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

The Duchess

The Dark Knight

BEST SOUND MIXING

Quantum of Solace

Slumdog Millionaire

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

WALL-E

BEST SOUND EDITING

WALL-E

Quantum of Solace

The Dark Knight

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Iron Man

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Revolutionary Road

The Duchess

Changeling

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Hans Zimmer, James Newton Howard, The Dark Knight

Thomas Newman, WALL-E

James Newton Howard, Defiance

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Waltz with Bashir [Israel]

The Class [France]

The Baader Meinhof Complex [Germany]

3 Monkeys [Turkey]

Everlasting Moments [Sweden]

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Man on Wire

Trouble the Water

Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh

Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts

Standard Operating Procedure

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Wall-E

Kung Fu Panda

Waltz with Bashir

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

BEST MAKEUP

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Hellboy II: The Golden Army



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Gran Torino” from Gran Torino


Composed by Clint Eastwood, Jamie Cullum, Michael Stevens, Kyle Eastwood

Written by Michael Stevens

“The Wrestler” from The Wrestler

Written and Performed by Bruce Springsteen

“Down to Earth” from WALL-E

Music by Thomas Newman & Peter Gabriel

Lyrics by Peter Gabriel

Performed by Peter Gabriel

“I Thought I Lost You” from Bolt

Written by Miley Cyrus

Performed by Miley Cyrus and John Travolta

“Another Way To Die” from Quantum of Solace

Written and Produced by Jack White

Performed by Jack White & Alicia Keys

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.