Countdown to the Oscars: Who Will and Should Win

After all of the talk and the countless award ceremonies that have preceded it, the Oscars ceremony will finally take place tomorrow evening. The 83rd Academy Awards are bound to be exciting with ten best picture nominees and several tight races that could surprise some viewers. I’m hoping for a few surprises and a few well-deserved victories tonight. Here are my predictions as to who will win and who should be taking home Oscar gold in the major categories.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

This is the category where I am hoping for the biggest upset. Portman has the momentum but I found both her performance and the film to be disappointing. The plot of “Black Swan” was over-the-top and over-dramatic and the film doesn’t deserve the recognition that it’s been receiving. On the other hand, Annette Bening was in complete control of her character in “The Kids are All Right” and played the part of a woman trying to hold her family together wonderfully. Let’s hope that the Academy agrees and hands Bening her first Oscar.

Best Actor:

Will Win: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

There is no doubt that Firth delivers a strong performance in “The King’s Speech.” However, I prefer Franco’s performance as an athlete with his arm trapped underneath a boulder. In approximately an hour and a half, Franco plays a man facing death who must find a way to save his own life. “127 Hours” would have failed if it wasn’t for Franco’s strong performance and Danny Boyle’s great directing. The two of them made this movie succeed and Franco, who will be co-hosting the Oscars, deserves to walk home with an award for it.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

“The Fighter” was an actor’s movie and there are two brilliant performances in it. Leo and her onscreen son Christian Bale should both be walking out of the theater with Oscars in hand. In “The Fighter,” Leo shines as an overbearing mother who is trying to manage her son’s boxing career. It’s a wonderful role and Leo excels in it. The Academy Awards often applaud big performances and this year will be no different.

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Of the four main acting categories, this one is the easiest bet. As a drug-addicted former boxer trying to reclaim his glory, Bale delivered the second great performance on display in “The Fighter.” In recent years, Bale has been known for playing the straight-laced Bruce Wayne in the Batman movies. In this movie, Bale gets a chance to cut loose and go for broke in a scene-stealing supporting role. Like Heath Ledger did in “The Dark Knight,” Bale overshadows the main character in a great performance that will likely be rewarded.

Best Director:

Will Win: Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

Although other critics predict that David Fincher will win best director for his role behind the scenes of “The Social Network,” I think that Hooper has the momentum going for him, especially with his recent DGA award. Personally, I loved “The Social Network” more than “The King’s Speech,” but the directing stood out more in the latter picture. Hooper uses his directing to add a new element to the story. By focusing on open spaces, Hooper brought attention to the importance of the King of England being able to speak across the airwaves to his fellow countrymen and should receive an Oscar for it.

Best Picture:

Will Win: “The King’s Speech”

It’s unfortunate to think that “Toy Story 3” isn’t even really contending in this category. With the assumption that “Toy Story 3” will win in the animated feature film category, it looks like the voters will ultimately choose something else as best picture. Most of the other contenders in this category (excluding “Black Swan” and “Winter’s Bone”) deserve to be here and “The King’s Speech” is a strong choice for best picture. However, the best picture of the year was undoubtedly “Toy Story 3” and its producers should be walking away with an award that says so at the end of the night.