The U.S. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC) recently updated its estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) parameters to include age-specific data showing the vast majority of people who contract the Chinese coronavirus survives.
CDC’s new IFR estimates broken down by age are part of the agency’s September 10 update to its “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.”
Based on the “Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate” for the IFR, Breitbart News confirmed the updated age-specific survival rates: 0-19 years old, 99.997 percent; 20-49 years old, 99.98 percent; 50-69 years, 99.5 percent; and 70 years old or older, 94.6 percent.
That means that for people 69 years old or younger, the survival rate is between 99.5 percent and 99.997 percent, while for those 70 or older, it is an estimated 94.6 percent.
Breitbart News gleaned the survival rate figures from the CDC’s IFR estimates: 0-19 years old, 0.003 percent; 20-49 years old, 0.02 percent; 50-69 years, 0.5 percent; 70 years old or older, 5.4 percent.
Driven by the high rate among seniors age 70 and older, the average of the age-specific IFRs included in the CDC document stands at an estimated 1.5 percent. That is much higher than the seasonal flu’s mortality rate of about 0.1 percent but substantially lower than death rate estimates prior to the nationwide lockdowns intensifying.
Excluding the fatality rate for seniors results in the average IFR dropping to 0.174 percent.
In May, the CDC suggested the overall IFR stood at 0.26 percent, about eight to 15 times lower than earlier mortality rate estimates of two to four percent.
The IFR, or true fatality rate, accounts for all infected individuals (asymptomatic and symptomatic). Meanwhile, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) only includes confirmed cases.
The IFR tends to be lower and considered more accurate because it is a more comprehensive representation of the death rate.
Asymptomatic cases are harder to detect, so officials often use estimates based on tests for antibodies against the novel coronavirus disease.
The five scenarios mentioned in the CDC document are meant to help inform “decisions by public health officials” and help them “evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies,” including social distancing.
Data in the planning scenarios document may “also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs,” the agency said.
“The planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government,” it added.
Despite the U.S. leading the world in the number of cases, more people have contracted the virus in this country without dying as compared to other nations.