Kentucky is growing closer to exorcising the demons of four decades of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), with polling showing MAGA favorite Nate Morris surging in the Republican Senate primary against two McConnell acolytes.
The numbers reveal that Morris is already in a statistical tie for second despite being much less known than his opponents. As he has begun advertising, voters are clearly drawn to what they see from Morris, who is converting supporters faster than Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) or Daniel Cameron with significantly more room to grow. Of voters who have an opinion of all three candidates, Morris is already winning.
According to a polling memo by Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s top pollster and one of his most trusted advisors:
In a 3-way ballot with no minor candidates, Cameron gets 31%, Barr 24%, and Morris 21%. However, when we look at the Kentucky [registered primary voters] that have an opinion of all three, Morris gets 28%, Cameron 26%, and Barr 25%. This is a clear sign the ballot will tighten as Morris becomes as well-known as Cameron and Barr.
Former Kentucky Attorney General and McConnell staffer Daniel Cameron enjoys an immense name ID benefit from his tenure as attorney general and 2023 nomination for governor, where he was defeated by incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear in a state which Trump carried the following year by over 30 points.
Yet the poll shows Cameron’s lead is crumbling as voters realize that he is not endorsed by President Donald Trump. This predictable movement is likely continue as Morris floods the airwaves with positive advertising tying himself to the MAGA movement, while Cameron remains cash strapped.
Barr, who like Cameron is well-known statewide after over a decade as Congressman, has not moved substantively since jumping into the race in April 2025 despite his campaign spending heavily and his well-financed Super PAC hasving almost exhausted its reserves.
But despite all that spending, Barr is not moving while Morris continues his climb. Barr has simply spent too much money to have moved this little, a trend sure to spook prospective donors.
Trump’s endorsement remains decisive and is the most potent force in GOP politics. Second to that, however, is the late Charlie Kirk’s endorsement.
Kirk’s final endorsement before his tragic murder in 2025 was Morris. When voters learn that Morris is backed by Kirk, he immediately jumps to first place by an almost 2-to-1 margin. That data point is significant as ads currently being run by Fight for Kentucky and the Morris Campaign tout Kirk’s endorsement.
With primary election day months away, Morris holds a massive firepower advantage, enabling him to match Barr dollar for dollar on the campaign side.
Morris has additional aid coming from Elon Musk, who announced in January a donation of $10 million to Morris’s Super PAC – the largest disclosed contribution of the 2026 midterm cycle – an investment which has yet to influence polling numbers but certainly will, given the effectiveness of Morris’s message.
Meanwhile, Cameron is struggling to afford to advertise and Barr’s message has fallen completely flat with voters despite millions spent. Their internal polls, in light of the gold standard Fabrizio poll, are unlikely to move prospective donors.
Morris has centered his campaign around supporting an immigration moratorium until every illegal migrant has been deported, as well as ending the zombie filibuster in order to pass the SAVE Act, which requires voter ID and other election integrity initiatives opposed by Democrats and many establishment Republicans.
In addition to backing from Charlie Kirk, Morris has been endorsed by Turning Point Action, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), and many others. He is also a personal friend of Vice President JD Vance.
The poll was conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and surveyed 800 likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky from January 27-29, 2026.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.