Cincinnati visits Ohio State at 6 p.m. in the last big conference clash–the start times and projections listed below for the 106 FBS teams in action this week show the attention turning to conference play as the conference pecking order is about set until the Bowl Games. That game is almost a “play-in” game between the American and Big Ten for an outside shot at the playoff, as Tommy Tuberville tries to pull his third upset in as many tries against Urban Meyer.

The Big Ten has a pulse after a huge Week 4, but cannot afford any more upsets as they hope to make the tough case for a one-loss Michigan State or undefeated Nebraska or Penn State to sneak into the Final Four.

The American Athletic would love to pitch an undefeated Cincinnati team if they could win the title and if Central Florida could beat BYU next week to go along with East Carolina’s big wins over Virginia Tech and UNC and near miss at South Carolina.

For the rest of the season it will all be about winning the conference–with the pecking order of conferences pretty much set except for adjusting for the occasional upset by a smaller conference, or games by BYU and Notre Dame. Here is the summary of each conference’s opportunities to score big wins against other conferences this week, followed by the list of all games.

AAC 3-5 projected record, projected to lose by a combined -76 pts – three AAC teams visit top 25 teams, including Cincy at Ohio State

ACC 8-5, +82 pts – favored in 4 non-conference, while Syracuse underdog vs. ND

Big Ten 8-6, +70 pts – Rutgers and OSU need to handle Tulane and Cincy

Big12 5-3, +37 pts – K-State and TCU both have pretty easy wins

CUSA 5-6, -49 pts – La Tech at Auburn one of three chances for big upsets

FCS 1-1 -10 pts – E Illinois and Yale decent chances vs. Ohio and Army

Ind 2-1, +32 pts – Notre Dame can keep title hopes alive vs. Syracuse

MAC 4-6, -76 pts – Ohio hosts E Illinois in the one toss-up game

MWC 4-6, -47 pts – Colorado St & Wyoming longshots at BC & Michigan St

Pac-12 5-5, +0 pts – rating will stay the same with all conference games

SBC 3-5, -38 pts – Texas St. at Tulsa better of two longshot chances for upsets

SEC 7-4, +75 pts – All 3 big favorites with Auburn must vulnerable (vs. La Tech)

The table indicates that Cincinnati is ranked 5oth in the Pythagorean Ratings, plays at 6 p.m. Eastern, has a 25% chance of winning and is a 12-point underdog at Ohio State, which is ranked 29th and from the Big Ten.

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Teams Rnk Time W% Marg Ven Opp Rnk Con
Cincinnati 50 6:00pm 25% -12 at Ohio St 29 B10
Connecticut 112 4:00pm 28% -10 host Temple 74 AAC
East Carolina 19   0% 0        
Houston 67   0% 0        
Memphis 63 7:30pm 7% -25 at Mississippi 8 SEC
SMU 98 12:00pm 10% -19 host TCU 23 B12
South Florida 114 12:00pm 1% -25 at Wisconsin 25 B10
Temple 74 4:00pm 72% 10 at Connecticut 112 AAC
Tulane 90 12:00pm 27% -8 at Rutgers 75 B10
Tulsa 92 8:00pm 79% 13 host Texas St 117 SBC
UCF 54   0% 0        
AAC 3-5, -76 pts     2.5 (76)        
                 
Boston College 28 12:30pm 87% 22 host Colorado St 81 MWC
Clemson 15 7:00pm 84% 22 host North Carolina 56 ACC
Duke 34 7:30pm 45% -3 at Miami FL 40 ACC
Florida St 1 3:30pm 91% 25 at NC State 58 ACC
Georgia Tech 26   0% 0        
Louisville 13 3:30pm 99% 25 host Wake Forest 94 ACC
Miami FL 40 7:30pm 55% 3 host Duke 34 ACC
NC State 58 3:30pm 9% -25 host Florida St 1 ACC
North Carolina 56 7:00pm 16% -22 at Clemson 15 ACC
Pittsburgh 45 1:30pm 96% 25 host Akron 116 MAC
Syracuse 44 8:00pm 14% -16 neutral Notre Dame 9 Ind
Virginia 36 3:30pm 100% 25 host Kent 125 MAC
Virginia Tech 42 12:30pm 97% 25 host W Michigan 115 MAC
Wake Forest 94 3:30pm 1% -25 at Louisville 13 ACC
ACC 8-5, +82 pts     7.9 82        
                 
Illinois 91 9:00pm 7% -25 at Nebraska 24 B10
Indiana 57 1:30pm 56% 3 host Maryland 49 B10
Iowa 60 12:00pm 81% 10 at Purdue 102 B10
Maryland 49 1:30pm 44% -3 at Indiana 57 B10
Michigan 76 3:30pm 67% 6 host Minnesota 85 B10
Michigan St 20 12:00pm 98% 25 host Wyoming 104 MWC
Minnesota 85 3:30pm 33% -6 at Michigan 76 B10
Nebraska 24 9:00pm 93% 25 host Illinois 91 B10
Northwestern 103 12:00pm 11% -15 at Penn St 64 B10
Ohio St 29 6:00pm 75% 12 host Cincinnati 50 AAC
Penn St 64 12:00pm 89% 15 host Northwestern 103 B10
Purdue 102 12:00pm 19% -10 host Iowa 60 B10
Rutgers 75 12:00pm 73% 8 host Tulane 90 AAC
Wisconsin 25 12:00pm 99% 25 host South Florida 114 AAC
Big Ten 8-6, +70 pts     8.4 70        
                 
Baylor 11 8:00pm 77% 16 at Iowa St 55 B12
Iowa St 55 8:00pm 23% -16 host Baylor 11 B12
Kansas 106 4:00pm 7% -17 host Texas 38 B12
Kansas St 35 12:00pm 85% 18 host UTEP 79 CUSA
Oklahoma 2   0% 0        
Oklahoma St 7 Thu 09.25 92% 25 host Texas Tech 68 B12
TCU 23 12:00pm 90% 19 at SMU 98 AAC
Texas 38 4:00pm 93% 17 at Kansas 106 B12
Texas Tech 68 Thu 09.25 8% -25 at Oklahoma St 7 B12
West Virginia 39   0% 0        
Big12 5-3, +37 pts     4.7 37        
                 
FL Atlantic 82 5:00pm 33% -6 host UT San Antonio 48 CUSA
Florida Intl 101 3:30pm 25% -15 at UAB 65 CUSA
Louisiana Tech 59 4:00pm 11% -25 at Auburn 5 SEC
Marshall 47   0% 0        
Middle Tenn St 77 Fri 09.26 42% -4 at Old Dominion 73 CUSA
North Texas 62   0% 0        
Old Dominion 73 Fri 09.26 58% 4 host Middle Tenn St 77 CUSA
Rice 78 7:00pm 83% 17 at Southern Miss 119 CUSA
Southern Miss 119 7:00pm 17% -17 host Rice 78 CUSA
UAB 65 3:30pm 75% 15 host Florida Intl 101 CUSA
UT San Antonio 48 5:00pm 67% 6 at FL Atlantic 82 CUSA
UTEP 79 12:00pm 15% -18 at Kansas St 35 B12
W Kentucky 61 3:30pm 38% -6 at Navy 52 Ind
CUSA 5-6, -49 pts     5 (49)        
                 
Army 89 1:00pm 68% 11 at Yale non NCAA
BYU 21   0% 0        
Navy 52 3:30pm 62% 6 host W Kentucky 61 CUSA
Notre Dame 9 8:00pm 86% 16 neutral Syracuse 44 ACC
Ind 2-1, +32 pts     2.2 32        
                 
Akron 116 1:30pm 4% -25 at Pittsburgh 45 ACC
Ball St 95   0% 0        
Bowling Green 93 3:00pm 81% 9 at Massachusetts 120 MAC
Buffalo 122 3:30pm 77% 10 host Miami OH 128 MAC
C Michigan 105 7:00pm 40% -4 at Toledo 99 MAC
E Michigan 123   0% 0        
Kent 125 3:30pm 0% -25 at Virginia 36 ACC
Massachusetts 120 3:00pm 19% -9 host Bowling Green 93 MAC
Miami OH 128 3:30pm 23% -10 at Buffalo 122 MAC
N Illinois 69   0% 0        
Ohio 111 2:00pm 48% -1 host E Illinois non NCAA
Toledo 99 7:00pm 60% 4 host C Michigan 105 MAC
W Michigan 115 12:30pm 3% -25 at Virginia Tech 42 ACC
MAC 4-6, -76 pts     3.6 (76)        
                 
Air Force 100 7:00pm 23% -15 host Boise St 53 MWC
Boise St 53 7:00pm 77% 15 at Air Force 100 MWC
Colorado St 81 12:30pm 13% -22 at Boston College 28 ACC
Fresno St 87 Fri 09.26 61% 6 at New Mexico 110 MWC
Hawaii 80   0% 0        
Nevada 66 10:30pm 52% 1 at San Jose St 83 MWC
New Mexico 110 Fri 09.26 39% -6 host Fresno St 87 MWC
San Diego St 70 8:00pm 88% 17 host UNLV 109 MWC
San Jose St 83 10:30pm 48% -1 host Nevada 66 MWC
UNLV 109 8:00pm 12% -17 at San Diego St 70 MWC
Utah St 84   0% 0        
Wyoming 104 12:00pm 2% -25 at Michigan St 20 B10
MWC 4-6, -47 pts     4.2 (47)        
                 
E Illinois non 2:00pm 52% 1 at Ohio 111 MAC
Yale non 1:00pm 32% -11 host Army 89 Ind
FCS 1-1 -10 pts     0.8 (10)        
                 
Arizona 46   0% 0        
Arizona St 37 Thu 09.25 59% 4 host UCLA 27 P12
California 72 4:00pm 74% 11 host Colorado 97 P12
Colorado 97 4:00pm 26% -11 at California 72 P12
Oregon 4   0% 0        
Oregon St 51 10:30pm 16% -16 at USC 17 P12
Stanford 18 4:00pm 52% 1 at Washington 32 P12
UCLA 27 Thu 09.25 41% -4 at Arizona St 37 P12
USC 17 10:30pm 84% 16 host Oregon St 51 P12
Utah 31 8:00pm 85% 17 host Washington St 71 P12
Washington 32 4:00pm 48% -1 host Stanford 18 P12
Washington St 71 8:00pm 15% -17 at Utah 31 P12
Pac-12 5-5, +0 pts     5.0        
                 
Appalachian St 126 Thu 09.25 6% -22 at Ga Southern 96 SBC
Arkansas St 88   0% 0        
Ga Southern 96 Thu 09.25 94% 22 host Appalachian St 126 SBC
Georgia St 127   0% 0        
Idaho 124 5:00pm 18% -14 host South Alabama 108 SBC
New Mexico St 118 7:30pm 1% -25 at LSU 22 SEC
South Alabama 108 5:00pm 82% 14 at Idaho 124 SBC
Texas St 117 8:00pm 21% -13 at Tulsa 92 AAC
Troy 121 7:00pm 13% -16 at ULM 107 SBC
ULL 113   0% 0        
ULM 107 7:00pm 87% 16 host Troy 121 SBC
SBC 3-5, -38 pts     3.2 (38)        
                 
Alabama 3   0% 0        
Arkansas 30 3:30pm 21% -19 neutral Texas A&M 6 SEC
Auburn 5 4:00pm 89% 25 host Louisiana Tech 59 CUSA
Florida 43   0% 0        
Georgia 14 12:00pm 76% 13 host Tennessee 33 SEC
Kentucky 41 12:00pm 88% 18 host Vanderbilt 86 SEC
LSU 22 7:30pm 99% 25 host New Mexico St 118 SBC
Mississippi 8 7:30pm 93% 25 host Memphis 63 AAC
Mississippi St 12   0% 0        
Missouri 16 7:00pm 39% -5 at South Carolina 10 SEC
South Carolina 10 7:00pm 61% 5 host Missouri 16 SEC
Tennessee 33 12:00pm 24% -13 at Georgia 14 SEC
Texas A&M 6 3:30pm 79% 19 neutral Arkansas 30 SEC
Vanderbilt 86 12:00pm 12% -18 at Kentucky 41 SEC
SEC 7-4, +75 pts     6.8 75